18.12.23 - 22.12.23
Results of the previous week
| PL+4.28% | VIX +2.73% | NZDUSD+1.39% |
SUGAR -3.70% | HO -2.21% | CORN -0.98% |
US indices traded mixed last week, consolidating around their recently reached highs. The movements were more technical in nature, but markets are still quite optimistic amid the expected US Fed rate cut in 2024.
The currency market also had a mixed performance. Commodity currencies gained ground against the dollar. They were supported by hopes that the global economy will revive after key central banks begin gradually easing their monetary policy.
Brent oil prices continued to recover, approaching $80 a barrel despite a short-term decline associated with the information that Angola is leaving OPEC. The rapid recovery was caused by the fact that Angola produces 1.1 million bpd and, therefore, doesn't have enough capacity to increase production significantly and disrupt the balance of supply and demand in the world market.
Key events of the current week
The US. The Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey | DATE 26.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Despite US Q3 GDP data being revised downwards from 5.2% to 4.9%, sentiment about the economy is fairly confident. The labour market remains stable, and inflation is gradually weakening. However, the manufacturing sector in one US state that accounts for about 10% of the US industrial sector is in recession. The fact that it's moving deeper into negative territory confirms the validity of the US Fed's statements that it'll consider a rate cut in 2024. A high interest rate for a long period of time hurts the real sector, and a weak manufacturing activity index is bad news for the dollar. In such a scenario, we could see USD/JPY get back to 140.90. | |||||
The US. New jobless claims | DATE 28.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US labour market has been stable for a long time. The unemployment rate has remained around three-year lows, which has allowed the US Federal Reserve to tighten its monetary policy to combat high price pressures for a considerable period of time. In December, the number of new jobless claims was up 2 out of 3 weeks. Global analysts expect the figure to rise again in the second-to-last work week of the year. This is bad news for the dollar, but that's good news for its opponents. In such a scenario, EUR/USD could continue to move towards 1.1100. | |||||
The US. EIA crude oil reserves data | DATE 28.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The indicator of US oil reserves is quite volatile. However, it traditionally causes oil prices to fluctuate actively. According to the latest weekly data, the indicator showed significant growth, signalling a reduction in consumption. Right now, changes in supply and demand are shaping the price of oil. Given that the IMF expects the global economy to cool down, an increase in reserves is an alarming and negative factor for Brent crude oil. Brent (BRN) will start to decline towards $77.40 if the indicator grows again. | |||||
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