08.01.24 - 12.01.24
Results of the previous week
| NG+6.07% | COCOA +4.66% | BRN+2.30% |
ACB -6.12% | PL -3.63% | TF -1.93% |
Last week, US indices showed moderate growth. They received support from fairly positive macroeconomic data. Inflation data reflected a decline in the core inflation indicator, which excludes energy and food costs, convincing markets that the Fed has little reason not to cut rates. Expectations of monetary policy easing are good news for the stock market.
The forex market saw mixed dynamics. The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar. But the US currency showed a slight decline in its pairs with the pound and euro. The reason lies in the difference in the regulators' sentiment towards monetary policy. Unlike the US Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England aren't considering rate cuts.
The price of Brent oil returned to around $80 a barrel. Oil prices began to rise after the US and UK struck Houthi targets in Yemen in response to their militant group's attacks on international vessels in the Red Sea. An escalation in the Middle East could reduce oil supply, which would buoy oil prices.
Key events of the current week
Germany ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment | DATE 16.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Over the last 3 months, economic sentiment in Germany has been improving slightly. What's more, the indicator finally consolidated in positive territory. Global analysts assume that the ZEW economic sentiment indicator will grow gradually, increasing optimism about the country's economic outlook. Such forecasts are partly due to energy prices stabilising. Additionally, inflation is largely under control. This means the ECB will at least pause rate hikes, which will support Germany's economy. In this scenario, an improvement for the indicator is good news for the euro. If the report meets expectations, EUR/USD could rise to 1.1040. | |||||
The UK. Inflation rate | DATE 17.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
By repeatedly raising rates, the Bank of England managed to curb inflation. The indicator is still above the regulator's target level but is show a downtrend. In addition, the rise in energy prices has slightly slowed, which is positively affecting inflation's movements. According to world analytical agencies, the latter will remain at the same level. This means that the Bank of England won't raise its key interest rate in the future. The lack of monetary policy tightening is harmful to the British pound. In such a scenario, we could see the cable get back up to somewhere around 1.2620. | |||||
The US. Retail sales | DATE 17.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Domestic consumption plays a pivotal role in US GDP. The retail sales indicator is very important in assessing the country's economic health. In recent months, the indicator has shown fairly stable growth, which confirms the strength of the US economy. When coupled with the recent fairly positive labour market report, this allows the Federal Reserve to not rush to make rate cuts. What's more, the latest data shows that price pressures in the country have slightly increased. Expectations that the Fed won't raise its key rate at its next meeting are buoying the dollar. With the good news from this report, USD/JPY may resume its rise towards 146.60. | |||||
![Markets uncertain ahead of holidays [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/news/shutterstock_686227327_11.jpg?itok=6SczAYa7)
