11.12.23 - 15.12.23
Results of the previous week
| PA+21.69% | VIX +13.15% | YM+2.35% |
ORCL -9.65% | SUGAR -2.57% | USDJPY -2.56% |
Last week, US indices were up primarily because of the latest US Fed meeting, at which the regulator's representatives made it clear that they project 3 rate cuts in 2024. At the same time, they won't wait for inflation to fall to the target level. This is very good news for the stock market, which historically goes up in December during the so-called Santa Claus rally.
The decline in inflation and the mood demonstrated at the last Fed meeting convinced the market that the monetary tightening cycle is a thing of the past. Naturally, this was disappointing news for the dollar, which suffered losses against the euro, commodity currencies and the Japanese yen.
Brent oil prices gained a foothold above $76 a barrel in the second half of the week after receiving support from the weak dollar. Markets were also optimistic about the US Fed softening its monetary policy stance. US oil reserves data showed a significant reduction and added to the positivity.
Key events of the current week
The eurozone. Inflation rate | DATE 19.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The ECB kept its interest rate unchanged at its last meeting. It's worth noting that the region's inflation is gradually decreasing to the target level. Global analysts forecast that annual inflation will come in at 2.4%. This means that the European regulator, just like its US counterpart, will get a chance to soften its monetary stance, hinting that the rate hike cycle is over. This is a positive signal for the eurozone's economy, but this is bad news for the pan-European currency, given that the region's economy is in worse shape than the US economy. In this scenario, we could see the Fibre fall to somewhere around 1.0840. | |||||
The UK. Inflation rate | DATE 20.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Inflation in the UK is declining, though it's doing so more slowly than anywhere else. The British economy is fairly weak right now. The country's GDP growth rate remains low. At its last meeting, the Bank of England left its monetary policy unchanged in order to take a pause in order to wait for previous measures to have an effect. Global analytical agencies forecast that the British regulator's interest rate is currently at a sufficient level to restrain inflation, slowing it down to 4%. That's bad news for the British currency, however, since lower inflation means the Bank of England isn't carrying out new rate hikes. Amidst falling inflation, the GBP/USD pair could pull back to 1.2620. | |||||
The US. Durable goods orders | DATE 22.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Durable goods orders are a very important indicator that, among other things, gives an understanding of what large companies will do in order to meet demand for expensive goods with a long service life. Overall, the health of the economy depends on this indicator. The indicator fell significantly the month before, but, as global analysts had forecast, orders increased by 1.8% in the reporting period. This is good news for the US economy and US indices, which are already moving up under the influence of expectations of a change in the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Against this backdrop, the Nasdaq (NQ) could set a new high above the 17,000.00 mark. | |||||
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