04.12.23 - 08.12.23
Results of the previous week
| SPCE+21.24% | COCOA +3.57% | USDCHF+0.76% |
NG -11.48% | XAGUSD -6.07% | VIX -3.62% |
US indices have been trading mixed, lingering around their newly reached highs. Support stems from hopes that the US Federal Reserve is done with interest rate hikes, but technical factors are constraining growth. In recent weeks, indices have mostly risen, so it was time for correction.
The Forex market was similarly mixed. The US dollar strengthened against the pound, euro, Australian and New Zealand dollars but weakened against the Japanese yen. The US dollar gained some support from the decline in Treasury bond yields. In addition, macroeconomic data signalling the relative stability of the US economy are also positive for the US currency.
Brent oil prices reached $74 a barrel, a six-month low. Oil has come under pressure from insufficient production cuts, large supplies from the US and concerns about weakening global demand. Data on China's oil imports added to the negative sentiment after the indicator fell to a four-month low.
Key events of the current week
US Fed rates decision | DATE 13.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
US inflation is declining, which is an indication that the US interest rate is high enough to contain rising price pressures. At the same time, there's a growing expectation in the markets that the US regulator will start a gradual rate cut next year. However, Jerome Powell clarified that such conclusions are too early for now, and the Fed is ready to raise the interest rate further if necessary. Therefore, global analysts don't expect any changes in monetary policy from the Fed's current meeting. Markets will pay special attention to the regulator's comments. An insufficiently hawkish tone from the Fed will hurt the dollar. In such a scenario, we could see USD/JPY decline to as low as 142.00. | |||||
Bank of England interest rate decision | DATE 14.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The British economy is not in the best shape. The country's GDP growth rate remains low. Inflation is easing but still remains well above the Bank of England's target level. This situation presents the Bank of England with a difficult choice: continue to fight high price pressures or stop supporting a weakening economy. Global analysts expect the regulator to pause its rate hike, especially as it's already at its highest level since 2008. The lack of monetary policy tightening is harmful to the British pound.In such a scenario, GBP/USD could return to 1.2480. | |||||
ECB rates decision | DATE 08.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The European economy has been hit hard by rising energy prices and changing supply chains. The PMI in its key sectors remains under 50, signalling a decline. The region's GDP is also slowing down. At the same time, inflation has dropped to 2.4%, which is fairly close to the target set by the ECB. Forecasts from global analytical agencies that the rate will be kept at 4.5% look quite justified. However, keeping interest rates at current levels is bad news for the euro. If the report is in line with expectations, the Fibre could make it back to the 1.0640 mark. | |||||
![The Fed causes the Santa Claus Rally [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/news/shutterstock_2030743190_14.jpg?itok=MvizmSvk)
