11.09.23 - 15.09.23
Results of the previous week
| VIX+7.52% | BRN +4.55% | Z+3.35% |
SNAP -3.28% | CORN -1.85% | GBPUSD -0.94% |
US indices showed moderate growth last week. They received support partly due to the positive dynamics of high-tech sector companies' stocks. Markets also reacted quite positively to the decent US labour market data, where jobless claims were below expectations. The market also ignored the rise in US inflation to 3.7%, preferring the decline of core inflation (i.e., excluding food and energy) to 4.3%.
The currency market recorded mixed dynamics. Rising energy prices supported commodity currencies. The Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars strengthened against their US counterpart. On the contrary, the euro, pound, and yen weakened against the US dollar. The European Central Bank's unexpected rate hike didn't manage to support the euro. Markets are more focused on the weakness of economies.
Oil has seen steady growth. At one point, Brent (BRN) exceeded $94 a barrel, and black gold is at its highest point since November 2022. The main driver of support for oil is forecasts from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which indicate that markets will face an oil shortage. The production cut by OPEC+ countries is having an effect.
Key events of the current week
US Federal Reserve rates decision | DATE 20.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
According to CME FedWatch data on Fed Funds futures prices, the probability of the regulator keeping the current rate in September is 97%. For that reason, the regulator's comments will be especially important. The latest labour market reports showed that it's fairly stable. However, inflation data (both for consumer prices and PMI) reflected increased price pressure in the country. This brings back fears that the US Federal Reserve will resume rate hikes. Comments from Fed officials reflecting their hawkish sentiment on monetary policy are positive for the dollar but negative for gold.In such a scenario, XAU/USD may continue its downtrend to 1,880.00.. | |||||
Bank of England rates decision | DATE 21.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The inflation rate in the United Kingdom is declining extremely slowly. The indicator is 3 times higher than the target level set by the Bank of England. The British regulator can't ignore high price pressure and is taking measures to curb it. Since December 2021, the Bank of England has performed 14 rate hikes, raising it to its highest level since 2008. But that's not all. The persistent rise in prices is forcing the central bank to continue tightening its monetary policy despite the economy's rather weak state. Another rate hike is good news for the British pound. In such a scenario, GBP/USD could return to 1.2520. | |||||
Germany's Manufacturing PMI | DATE 22.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy's growth is slowing, and GDP data point to a recession. The German economy is experiencing the consequences of energy price increases and supply chain disruptions. The negative effect is quite strong in the country's industrial sector. Since August 2022, the sector's PMI has been firmly below the 50 mark, indicating a downturn. At the same time, the index continued to decline, which is bad for the economy. The index remaining at low levels puts pressure on the euro. Weak figures could send EUR/USD to 1.0545. | |||||
![The US economy gives the Fed room for further rate hikes [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/default_images/economyc-indicators-2_5.jpg?itok=VgszlnhU)
