04.09.23 - 08.09.23
Results of the previous week
| ACB+12.50% | HO +5.18% | SUGAR+2.13% |
PL -6.15% | NG -3.74% | NQ -2.84% |
The first week of September brought negative trends back to the stock market. The majority of US indices declined, mostly due to increased expectations that the US Federal Reserve would still resume its rate hikes after a short pause. According to CME Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed raising its key interest rate in November is 1 to 2.
On the foreign exchange market, the dollar is seeing positive movement. It's partially supported by decent macroeconomic data that really leaves room for the US Fed to further hike interest rates if needed. For example, the new weekly jobless claims report was better than expected, with 216,000 applications submitted while forecasts expected 239,000.
Brent crude oil (BRN) prices rose to $91.13 at one point. The energy resource continues to receive support amid expectations of a supply cut following the OPEC+ decision to voluntarily cut production until early 2024. Data on US oil reserves showing a faster-than-expected decrease over the space of a week were also good news for oil.
Key events of the current week
Germany. ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment | DATE 12.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The situation in the German economy leaves much to be desired. GDP growth rates have slowed significantly. The manufacturing PMI has trended downward for a year due to a change in supply chains, a production cut at major enterprises and the European Central Bank's monetary policy. The service PMI has also moved into negative territory. No positive changes are expected for now. This is all due to negative sentiment about the economy, which hurts the euro. A lasting downward trend could send EUR/USD to somewhere around 1.0580.. | |||||
The US. Inflation rate | DATE 13.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US inflation rate has dropped from 9.1% to 3.0% in a year, but July data showed that the indicator had risen to 3.2% year-over-year. This instantly raised fears that the Fed will be forced to continue its monetary policy tightening course. What's more, global analytical agencies assume that US price pressure will begin rising again because of rising oil prices. Rising inflation, together with decent weekly jobless claims data, will increase fears of another rate hike. And this will be good for the dollar. In this case, USD/JPY could resume its movement toward 148.60. | |||||
ECB's monetary policy decision | DATE 14.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The European economy is showing rather weak results, yet, despite that, the European Central Bank is forced to tighten its monetary policy as part of its fight against inflation. Despite the fact that the key interest rate is already above 4.25%, inflation in the region remains two times higher than the ECB's target. Nevertheless, weak macrostatistics are causing the ECB to pause its rate hikes. The ECB's lack of decisiveness is good news for an asset like gold.If the interest rate remains unchanged, XAU/USD could return to around 1944.10. | |||||
![Can we expect the Fed to respond to rising inflation in the US? [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/news/shutterstock_394537039_16.jpg?itok=eFXaLwEa)
