14.08.23 - 18.08.23
Results of the previous week
| VIX+8.64% | HO +3.34% | PL+1.22% |
MARA -24.98% | TF -3.23% | NG -2.10% |
US indices have mostly remained under pressure, affected by the Fed's recent meeting minutes that hinted at further monetary policy tightening. Furthermore, news emerged that Fitch may be forced to downgrade the credit ratings of dozens of banks. Previously, Moody's decided to downgrade the ratings of 10 banks. This report failed to add any optimism.
The dollar continued to strengthen in the currency market. On the one hand, it's supported by relatively stable macroeconomic statistics. On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve has made statements that it will keep its interest rate high for a longer time if necessary. Commodity currencies were under additional pressure amid weak macroeconomic reports out of China.
Brent crude oil (BRN) prices declined to around $83 per barrel at the beginning of the week amid negative statistics from China, which raised concerns about demand for the energy resource. However, prices later recovered. Markets once again felt confident that there will be no severe supply and demand imbalance as a result of OPEC+ moves to reduce production volumes.
Key events of the current week
The UK. Manufacturing PMI | DATE 23.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK economy has seen better days. Despite inflation in the country abruptly dropping, it still remains way higher than the Bank of England's target levels. This means that the regulator will continue to hike interest rates given the state of the economy's key sectors. Activity in the industrial sector is still in a downturn, but even a slight improvement at this stage would signal a gradual recovery. This means that the Bank of England doesn't need to change its stance for now. High interest rates help the British pound, boosting GBP/USD to 1.2840.. | |||||
The US. Durable goods orders | DATE 24.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US Fed is making it clear that the economy will avoid a recession. Despite high interest rates, US GDP is growing at 2.4%, and inflation is slowing down. All this indicates that the US economy will make a soft landing despite continuing to show signs of a temporary cooldown. For example, analysts predict a decline in durable goods orders, which is bad news for the real sector and stock indices.If the report meets forecasts, the S&P 500 could experience a short-term fall to around 4,365.00. | |||||
Germany. GDP growth rate | DATE 25.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Germany's economy has entered a technical recession. For two quarters in a row, GDP growth rates have been in negative territory and haven't yet shown signs of reversing this trend. At the same time, inflation in the country remains extremely high. This means that the European Central Bank will remain committed to a tight monetary policy for quite a while. The weakness of European economies compared to the US economy is putting pressure on the euro.Amid the weak report, EUR/USD will continue its downward movement towards 1.0760. | |||||
![Uncertainty about the Fed's actions grows [Weekly Digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/default_images/economyc-indicators-2_5.jpg?itok=VgszlnhU)
