07.08.31 - 11.08.23
Results of the previous week
| VFC+8.40% | VIX +5.55% | NG+2.19% |
COFFEE -3.31% | NQ -2.50% | XAGUSD -2.11% |
US indices have been trading mixed. The key report on US inflation was somewhat contradictory. On the one hand, core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) was below forecasts. But the general indicator has overperformed. Uncertainty about further Fed actions is leading to caution in the stock market.
The pound, yen and commodity currencies have declined against the US dollar. This is partly due to US inflation data and partly due to the US economy feeling way more stable than those of Europe and the UK. As for the yen, the divergence in the US and Japan's central banks' monetary policy plays a key role.
Brent oil (BRN) gained a foothold above $85 a barrel. Oil prices rose on the promise of major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia to keep supply low for at least another month. And according to OPEC forecasts, global oil demand in 2023 will grow by 2.4 million bpd to 102 million barrels.
Key events of the current week
Germany. ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment | DATE 15.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The state of the German economy is a cause for serious concern. GDP growth data indicates that the economy is in recession, and price pressure remains quite high despite the European Central Bank's attempts to curb it. The negative outlook for the largest economy in the eurozone is also reflected in the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. For the last three months, it has been in the negative zone, and according to forecasts, it'll continue its downtrend. That's bad news for the euro.If the report meets expectations, EUR/USD could return to the 1.0900 mark. . | |||||
The US. Retail sales | DATE 15.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Domestic consumption plays a key role in every country's economy. Amid high inflation, this indicator has gradually declined in the US. The rising cost of lending has contributed to the dynamics. US price pressure continues to fall, and the Fed may pause its rate hike cycle. The stable labour market will contribute to the levelling of domestic consumption. According to forecasts from Trading Central, the index is expected to rise by 0.3% in the reporting period compared to the previous figure of 0.2%. And this will be good for the dollar. In such a scenario, USD/JPY could attempt to break the 144.80 level and move to the 146.00 mark. | |||||
The UK. Inflation rate | DATE 16.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Price pressure in the UK remains the highest among G7 countries. It's partly due to the country's wage growth rate remaining quite high. Nevertheless, the tight monetary policy the Bank of England is pursuing is doing its bit, and price pressure is gradually decreasing, though it remains above the target level. The fact that inflation remains high gives reason to expect further rate hikes from the Bank of England, which is good news for the British pound.If inflation lines up with forecasts, GBP/USD could return to the 1.2780 mark. | |||||
![The US Fed hints it'll keep monetary policy hawkish [Weekly Digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/news/shutterstock_394537039_14.jpg?itok=7nYSG1NH)
