25.11.24 - 29.11.24
Results of the previous week
| QSI +72.46% | COFFEE +4.44% | FDAX +1.05% |
NG -7.52% | VIX -3.30% | HG -1.73% |
Last week, US indices were slightly up. They need additional stimuli to break through previously reached highs with more certainty. At this stage, however, markets are seriously concerned that the US Federal Reserve won't cut its interest rate at its December meeting. In addition to that, sharper geopolitical tensions are also restraining economic activity.
In the forex market, the dollar is under pressure despite the fact that macroeconomic statistics pointed to the economy being fairly strong. On the one hand, the US dollar is weakening for technical reasons since a correction was long overdue. On the other hand, investors aren't sure that the new Trump administration will be able to successfully implement everything that the re-elected president wants to do.
At the start of the week, Brent crude oil prices fell to around 72.00, after which they entered a consolidation phase around this level. The energy resource came under pressure amidst reports that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire. This lowered concerns about disruptions in oil shipments from the region, which could support oil supply in the world market.
Key events of the current week
The UK. Services PMI | DATE 04.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The British economy is rather dependent on how things go in the services sector. For now, the services PMI remains in the growth zone. However, global analysts expect this indicator to drop to the critical point that separates the growth and decline zones. This is a worrying sign. Poorer performance by macroeconomic indicators increases the likelihood that the Bank of England will continue to lower its key interest rates with the goal of stimulating the economy. This is unfavourable for the pound. Against this backdrop, the Cable could continue to drop to somewhere around 1.2540. | |||||
The US. Services PMI (ISM) | DATE 04.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The service sector accounts for around 75% of US GDP, which is why the services PMI is one of the key indicators of the US economy's health. The situation in this industry remains stable, which allows the US Fed to take its time with the next step of cutting interest rates, which is pretty important given the new uptick in inflation. Global analysts expect this indicator to remain in the growth zone. This is good news for the dollar since it increases expectations that the US Federal Reserve won't cut its key interest rate at its December meeting. In this scenario, USD/JPY could start moving toward 152.00 again. | |||||
The US. Non-Farm Payrolls | DATE 06.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
In recent months, the US labour market has remained stable, and the economy is creating new jobs. The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.1%. However, global analysts expect the increase in new non-farm payrolls to slow sharply during the reporting period. This is a worrying signal that the sharply deteriorating situation in the labour market could change the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy positioning by requiring it to cut its key interest rate. This is bad news for the dollar since a weaker dollar helps its competitors, such as the euro. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD could continue to move to 1.0700. | |||||
