12.02.24 - 16.02.24
Results of the previous week
| PA+6.86% | TSLA +6.29% | WT+1.09% |
NG -10.54% | HO -4.93% | SUGAR -2.33% |
US indices experienced a short-term correction early in the week but returned to growth. This was due to the US inflation data, which slowed, but not as much as global analysts had predicted. Overall, however, the US economy is feeling very confident, which allowed indices to resume upward movement.
The delayed start of the US Fed rate cut after the publication of US inflation data provided the dollar with moderate support. At this stage, the projections of what the world's largest central banks will do with interest rates are affecting the dynamics of the currency market. Against the backdrop of the insufficiently rapid decline in inflation and a fairly strong economy, the Fed can take its time before it cuts rates, unlike the ECB and the Bank of England.
Brent oil prices stabilised in a range between $81.20 and $83.30. The data on the increased reserves in the US restrained prices from rising. Forecasts for demand provided little support, as did the IEA's forecast that demand for oil will continue to decline moderately. The reduction of shale oil production by US companies is seen as supportive.
Key events of the current week
US Federal Reserve meeting minutes | DATE 21.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The slowdown in US inflation is below expectations. According to the latest data, inflation fell to 3.1%, while most global analysts expected 2.9%. This movement in price pressure once again changed projections on interest rates. Initially, there was talk of a possible rate cut in March or May, but the latest statistics pushed the timeframe to June. In this regard, the Minutes of the last Fed meeting will retain a hawkish tone. They won't bring anything new. This is good news for the US dollar but bad news for dollar-denominated assets, such as gold. XAU/USD may decline to 1984.15. | |||||
The UK. Composite PMI | DATE 22.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK economy has seen better days. The country's industrial PMI has been in decline. Meanwhile, the composite index demonstrating relative stability is due to rather high service sector purchasing activity indicators. Nevertheless, according to the forecasts, the composite index will slightly decrease. This is another factor that forms negative sentiment about the UK economy. Against this background, expectations of rate cuts by the Bank of England are growing, which hurts the pound. In such a scenario, we could see the Cable fall to somewhere around 1.2480. | |||||
Germany's GDP growth rate | DATE 23.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy continues to weaken. Its growth rate has been negative for three quarters, indicating a recession. High energy prices and changes in supply chains have led to a contraction in the industrial sector. Germany has always been an industrialised country. The gradual decline in inflation and signs of weakness in the German economy are pushing the ECB to start cutting rates. According to forecasts, the European regulator may do so as early as April this year. These expectations hurt the euro. In such a scenario, we could see the EUR/USD return to somewhere around 1.0690. | |||||
![Fed prepared to keep interest rates high [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/news/shutterstock_2090820298_10.jpg?itok=MLSebahw)
