27.01.25 - 31.01.25
Results of the previous week
| PA +9.39% | VIX +7.95% | WT +1.45% |
Bitcoin -6.00% | COCOA -3.79% | NZDUSD -2.35% |
Last week, US indices were slightly up. Even the fact that the US Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged didn't bring any disappointment. This is because the US economy is seeing steadily high growth rates overall, and the labour market is in good shape. That means that the high interest rate isn't causing any damage to the economy just yet.
The dollar has gained ground against the euro and the pound. The European economy is experiencing a cooldown. In this context, the ECB has cut its key interest rate yet again. The difference between the Fed and the ECB's interest rates has widened, which puts the euro in a vulnerable position. In addition, the unemployment rate in Germany has risen to the highest level since October 2020.
Brent oil prices have continued to drop. Data on US oil reserves put pressure on them. The US Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates also led to concerns that the economy is slowing down, which could lead to a drop in demand for oil, a fact that served only to increase pressure. Data from China, a major oil consumer, didn't add any optimism.
Key events of the current week
| The US. Services PMI (ISM) USD/JPY | DATE 05.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The services sector accounts for a significant part of the United States's services-based GDP. The US economy is currently fairly stable and doesn't need any additional stimulus. The US Federal Reserve also left its monetary policy unchanged at its latest meeting. Keeping the positive movement for key macroeconomic indicators allows the US regulator to keep its interest rate high. And this will be good for the dollar. If the ISM Report meets expectations, the USD/JPY pair could rise to 156.20. | |||||
| Bank of England interest rate decision GBP/USD | DATE 06.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
According to the latest data, inflation in the United Kingdom has slightly dropped. Despite the fact that the indicator remains above the Bank of England's target rate, global analysts expect the regulator to cut its key interest rate. The reason for this decision lies in the economy's weakness, with GDP growth at just 0.9%. A softer monetary policy is needed to stabilise the main macroeconomic indicators. Rate cuts negatively affect the British pound.Against this background, GBP/USD could decline to 1.2160. | |||||
| The US. Non-farm payrolls XAU/USD | DATE 07.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Following its latest meeting, the US Federal Reserve once again confirmed that it's closely monitoring both inflation and the labour market. Overall, the US economy is showing fairly high growth rates. The unemployment rate has stabilised at a rather low rate, and global analysts expect the labour market to remain positive. This allows the regulator to keep its key interest rate unchanged for a fairly long time. And this will be good for the dollar. However, it's bad news for dollar-denominated assets such as gold.In this context, XAU/USD could decline to 2740.00. | |||||
