25.09.23 - 29.09.23
Results of the previous week
| NKE+6.11% | HO +3.74% | HG+1.52% |
WHEAT -7.11% | XAGUSD -5.64% | XU -0.70% |
US indices are ending September with losses. The small stabilisation they saw last week couldn't help them recover losses. The fact that 10-year Treasury bond yields are at their highest point in 15 years and the Federal Reserve intends to keep its key interest rate high for an extended period has put additional pressure on indices.
Major currency pairs began a correction mainly due to technical factors. Amid recovering oil prices and the growing cost of some raw materials, commodity currencies have seen improvements. In addition, the deadline for a compromise between Republicans and Democrats on the US federal budget is approaching. If no deal is struck, the US government will experience a shutdown, which could lead to the US credit rating being downgraded. That's also bad news for the dollar.
Brent (BRN) oil prices remain between $91.00 and $95.00. The price is supported by news that US strategic reserves have fallen to their lowest point since July 2022. Oil is also receiving support from fears of shortages as OPEC+ countries cut production.
Key events of the current week
Germany. PMI Services PMI | DATE 04.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy is showing signs of a cooldown. The GDP growth rate is declining, which signals a recession. A rather difficult situation is observed in the manufacturing and service sectors. It's worth noting that the service sector held on more steadfastly than the manufacturing one. The latest data shows that even the former moved to the recession zone. PMI dropped below the key 50 mark. Global analytical agencies expect the indicator to remain in a downtrend during the reporting period. That's bad news for the euro, resulting in EUR/USD moving to around 1.0490.. | |||||
The US. ISM Services Sector PMI | DATE 04.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The service sector remains vital for the US economy. It's worth noting that, overall, the US economy is feeling quite confident even though the Federal Reserve has previously hiked rates to curb high price pressures. According to Trading Central, the service PMI could see a slight decline. The indicator lingering above 50 is separating the growth zone from the recession one, providing the US Fed with the opportunity to retain its monetary policy stance. However, any signs of weakness in the US economy harm the dollar.If the report meets expectations, USD/JPY can continue correcting to 148.00. | |||||
The US. Non-farm payrolls | DATE 06.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Despite the US unemployment rate growing to 3.8% in August, it remains at a multi-year low. A gradual decrease in new job creation is also observed. So far, however, the numbers don't signal any significant problems in this sector. This allows the US Fed to maintain its chosen monetary policy. The Fed's high interest rate is good news for the dollar but bad news for dollar-denominated assets like gold.If the report meets expectations, this may increase anticipation of another rate hike, sending gold (XAU/USD) to $1,855.00. | |||||
