03.03.25 - 07.03.25
Results of the previous week
| NG +12.56% | VIX +7.71% | EURUSD +3.33% |
Bitcoin -4.47% | HO -2.79% | ES -2.02% |
Last week, US indices were mostly down. The key reason for this pressure was Donald Trump's tariffs policy. The president's decisions to raise tariffs on goods from several countries are causing concern about the imposition of retaliatory measures and, as a result, the negative impact on the health of the real economic sector.
The dollar also dropped significantly relative to most of its opponents. The reason again lies in Trump's decisions. For example, EUR/USD rose to a four-month high. The dollar's weakness is not the only reason. The euro is being supported by the increasing yield for euro bonds due to Germany's suggestions regarding massive defence spending. The euro was also buoyed by the ECB's move to increase the near-term inflation forecast.
Brent crude oil prices have fallen to $68,33 per barrel. However, the energy resource developed an upward correction on Friday. Oil prices primarily came under pressure because of an OPEC+ decision to start increasing production quotas starting in April 2025. Another negative factor was the concerns about the prospects for the global economy, given the United States' tariffs policy.
Key events of the current week
| The US. Inflation rate USD/JPY | DATE 12.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
At its latest meeting, the US Federal Reserve decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged. At the same time, Fed representatives announced that the state of the economy is not a cause for concern and doesn't yet require immediate monetary policy easing. However, inflation remains above the Fed's target rate. Global analysts expect inflation to decrease slightly during the reporting period. This indicator's movement will allow the Fed to maintain its fairly tight monetary policy.This is good news for the dollar. In this scenario, USD/JPY could return to 149.00. | |||||
| The UK. GDP growth rate GBP/USD | DATE 14.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
High energy prices and relatively high inflation continue to negatively impact the British economy. The manufacturing PMI remains in the 'decline' zone. Furthermore, with signs of an economic cooldown, global analysts expect the pace of GDP growth to slow compared to the previous month. This means that the Bank of England will be forced to continue easing its monetary policy in order to stimulate economic growth. In the current environment, that's bad news for the British pound. Against this background, GBP/USD could decline to 1.2780. | |||||
| The US. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index XAU/USD | DATE 14.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The consumer sentiment indicator has been declining for the past three months, even despite the fact that the US economy hasn't shown any signs of a cooldown. Americans are showing increasing concern for their prospects amidst fairly high inflation. This is bad news for the dollar since weak macroeconomic statistics could force the US Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary policy approach. Meanwhile, this is favourable for assets denominated in US dollars, such as gold. In this context, XAU/USD could rise to 2930.00. | |||||
