05.05.29 - 19.06.02
Results of the previous week
| TSLA +10.95% | YM +2.06% | HG +1.15% |
VIX -11.09% | NG -6.19% | PL -2.03% |
US indices once again showed a mixed performance. They were under moderate pressure at the start of the week amid fears over what the US government would do about its debt ceiling. But as soon as the Senate passed the bill to raise it, markets moved higher.
The resolution of the US debt ceiling issue has returned the market's interest in risky assets. As a result, the dollar mostly remained under pressure on the foreign exchange market. An additional negative factor for the US currency was the weaker-than-expected manufacturing purchasing managers' index.
Brent crude oil prices fell back to a local low of $71.70 at the start of the week, influenced by concerns over energy supply and demand if the Senate failed to approve a debt ceiling increase. But as soon as the risks of a US sovereign default receded, the prices of black gold moved up and are now trying to consolidate above the $75 per barrel mark.
Key events of the current week
Bank of Canada rates decision | DATE 07.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The Canadian central bank has already raised its interest rate eight times. However, it's taken a break during its last three meetings. This is because monetary restrictions lead to slower economic growth. According to the latest figures, the country's GDP grew by just 2.21% in the first quarter compared to the same period the previous year. Forecasts called for a growth of 2.8%. At the same time, price pressures are still quite high. As such, the Canadian regulator has to find a balance between supporting the economy and containing price pressures. The interest rate is projected to remain at the same level. Given the fact that the US is not ruling out another increase entirely, the Canadian dollar could come under pressure. The USD/CAD pair could return to 1.3540. | |||||
The eurozone. GDP growth rate | DATE 08.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Germany, the eurozone's largest economy, is showing signs of entering a recession. This can't occur without impacting the monetary bloc's economy as a whole. According to revised figures, annual GDP growth will only be 1.3%. At the same time, high inflation is acting as a factor forcing the ECB to maintain a rather tight monetary policy, which will have a further negative impact on the economy. If the report coincides with forecasts, the pan-European currency's first reaction could be to weaken. In such a scenario, the EUR/USD pair could go move back to 1.0680. | |||||
The US. New jobless claims | DATE 08.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US labour market, on the whole, appears relatively resilient, with unemployment at its lowest level in decades. If the report shows a rise in jobless claims, it could lead to a change in expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Signs of deterioration in the labour market could negatively impact the nation's service-oriented economy. As such, weak labour market data could lead to a short-term weakening of the dollar.In such a scenario, the USD/JPY pair could aim to move to around 137.50. | |||||
