02.12.24 - 06.12.24
Results of the previous week
| COFFEE +11.93% | XAGUSD +2.54% | NQ +2.13% |
SPCE -8.64% | PA -1.49% | HO -1.16% |
Last week, US indices were up. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 set new one-year highs thanks to tech-sector stocks. The strong US economy, which has so far avoided a recession, is supporting market optimism. Even a drop in the chances of the Federal Reserve easing its monetary policy didn't scare investors.
In the forex market, the dollar is strengthening against commodity currencies. This is due to expectations that the US Fed won't rush to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, the euro and pound are trying to correct upwards.
Brent crude oil prices rose at the beginning of the month before bouncing back to $71.50. The decision by OPEC+ to delay increasing oil production and to extend its reductions until 2026 is raising questions about the prospects for demand.
Key events of the current week
The US. Inflation rate | DATE 11.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Markets are looking forward to the Federal Reserve's last meeting of this year. Its interest rate decision will depend on the economic situation. After inflation dropped for an extended period, it began to rise again last month. Global analysts expect inflation to rise again. This will allow the Fed to forego cutting its key interest rate in December, which is favourable for the dollar but unfavourable for assets denominated in it, such as gold. In these conditions, XAU/USD could continue to drop to $2603. | |||||
ECB rates decision | DATE 12.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The European economy continues to show signs that it's cooling down. The manufacturing PMI in Germany remains in the 'decline' zone. Car makers are reducing expenses and could close manufacturing plants. The ECB has lowered its interest rate three times this year to stimulate the economy. Global analysts expect that it will do so again at its December meeting. This is bad news for the euro, especially given the Federal Reserve's more hawkish monetary policy. The EUR/USD pair could drop to 1.0400. | |||||
The UK. GDP growth rate | DATE 13.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The British economy is weakening. The PMI, especially in manufacturing, continues to fall deeper into 'decline' territory. Last month, GDP shrunk by 0.1%, but global analysts expect it to see a small increase in the next report. This is favourable news for the pound, as it decreases the likelihood of the Bank of England performing more quantitative easing. The GBP/USD pair could rise to 1.2870. | |||||
