02.10.23 - 06.10.23
Results of the previous week
| NG+19.78% | VIX +7.01% | XAGUSD+2.94% |
BRN -9.2% | COFFEE -2.23% | TF -1.91% |
US indices are trading mixed. They're seeing pressure from the high yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, which reached a 17-year high at the beginning of the week. At the same time, individual macroeconomic reports indicate that the economy is beginning to give separate cooling signals, even though it's fairly stable. This, in turn, is raising expectations that the Fed may still not be in a hurry to hike interest rates yet again.
Traditionally, what supports indices tends to negatively affect the dollar's position relative to other currencies. The mixed macroeconomic reports triggered a correction for the dollar in most major currency pairs. The dollar suffered losses as part of a technical correction against the euro, pound and yen. The Australian and New Zealand dollars also retreated from local lows.
Brent crude oil (BRN) prices fell sharply. At one point, they reached $83.84 per barrel. The energy resource is under pressure amidst fears of a decrease in global demand as the global economy slows down. Markets are slightly disappointed by the OPEC+ announcement that it's maintaining its current policy instead of further cutting production. The third source of pressure is data on the reduction of gasoline consumption in the US.
Key events of the current week
The US. US Federal Reserve meeting minutes | DATE 11.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
US inflation is rising. As a result, the US Fed is maintaining its fairly hawkish monetary policy. Moreover, it has repeatedly hinted that there might be at least one more rate hike by the year's end. As such, comments from the regulator's representatives are really important. One can say that the Fed's aggressive stance is already priced in. In addition, US Treasury bonds have recently seen higher yields, which aren't exactly the best news for the real sector. However, the prospect of a rate hike is good news for the US dollar.In such a scenario, the USD/JPY pair could return to 149.80.. | |||||
The UK. GDP growth rate | DATE 12.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The British economy is not in the best shape. The services and manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Indices are below the 50 mark that separates the growth zone from the recession zone. Over the past four months, the British economy has seen an increase in the unemployment rate. The economy's growth rate is at a two-year low. Global analytical agencies expect the GDP indicator to continue following, even if at a slower pace. Nevertheless, current macroeconomic conditions are not looking good for the British pound.If the GDP data coincide with forecasts, the GBP/USD pair will resume its decline to 1.2050. | |||||
The US. Inflation rate | DATE 12.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
High energy prices and the approach of the heating season affected inflation in the United States. Price pressure has started rising again despite the US Federal Reserve's key interest rate being at its highest point since 2001. Analysts at the world's leading agencies expect the inflation rate to continue to grow. Given that the US economy isn't showing clear signs that it's approaching a recession, data from the CME Group show that markets believe there's an 81.5% likelihood that the Fed will keep its interest rate at the current high level. Rising inflation in the United States will strengthen expectations that monetary policy could be tightened, which is good news for the US dollar.In such a scenario, the EUR/USD pair could resume its decline, retesting 1.0450. | |||||
![US inflation isn't declining. The ball's now in the Fed's court [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/default_images/economyc-indicators-2_5.jpg?itok=VgszlnhU)
