06.11.23 - 10.11.23
Results of the previous week
| RCL+5.23% | WHEAT +3.28% | USDJPY+1.18% |
PA -13.04% | HO -7.65% | TF -2.48% |
US indices showed mixed dynamics last week. Comments from members of the US Federal Reserve that a further rate hike isn't out of the question hurt the stock market. The corporate earnings season provided some support for indices. Over half of major companies released their earnings reports, and their profits exceeded analysts' forecasts.
Hawkish comments by the Fed hinting at a potential rate hike helped the dollar recover some previous losses. It was able to strengthen against most key competitors, with the euro, pound, yen and commodity currencies seeing a decline.
Brent oil prices dropped below $80 a barrel for the first time since July 2023. Oil came under pressure amid weak macroeconomic reports. The weakness of the Chinese, German and British economies is forcing markets to revise their expectations of relatively stable oil demand. The ratio of supply/demand is the main pricing factor for the energy source.
Key events of the current week
The US. Inflation rate | DATE 14.11 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Price pressure in the United States is on the rise. Inflation has been increasing for the past four months, and global analysts expect the indicator to continue this trend despite the fact that the US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at the highest levels in the past 22 years. It's worth noting that the tight monetary policy has yet to have a significant negative impact on the state of key sectors of the US economy. At the same time, Fed members say that they'll keep the Federal Funds Rate high for as long as it takes to stabilise price pressure and return it to the target level. As such, fairly high inflation in the United States is good news for the US dollar. If the report meets expectations, USD/JPY may test the resistance at around 151.60, and if it breaks through that point, it will continue to rise to 152.00. | |||||
The UK. Inflation rate | DATE 15.11 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK's inflation rate remains one of the highest among G7 countries. The country's economy also leaves much to be desired, with GDP showing a very modest growth rate. Unemployment is at a two-year high. According to global analytical agencies' forecasts, the inflation rate in the country will decrease rather sharply, which will allow the Bank of England to pause its rate hikes at its next meeting. The lack of steps by the BoE to tighten monetary policy is bad news for the British pound. In such a scenario, the GBP/USD rate could return to 1.2100. | |||||
The US. Retail sales | DATE 15.11 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Domestic consumption plays a pivotal role in the health of the US economy. Over the past several months, consumer activity has been trending up. However, global analysts expect that the indicator will rise in the reporting period, albeit at a slower pace. This will be during the time ahead of the holiday season, which is when everyone traditionally starts buying gifts. This current state of affairs indicates that Americans are worried about something, cutting costs and creating a financial safety cushion. This is bad news for the US economy and the dollar. If this indicator drops, the dollar's competitors will receive support. For example, we could see EUR/USD return to somewhere around 1.0750. | |||||
![The US Federal Reserve calms the stock market [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/news/shutterstock_2076587971_8_0.jpg?itok=H5Bvrt9V)
