20.11.23 - 24.11.23
Results of the previous week
| COIN+8.95% | XAGUSD +5.05% | WHEAT+1.38% |
VIX -5.07% | HO -3.72% | SUGAR -2.47% |
The short trading week finished on a largely positive note for US indices, which demonstrated moderate growth. They received a boost from the Fed's minutes, which noted that the regulator would take more of a "wait and see" approach and only return to rate hikes if inflation begins to spiral out of control
Traditionally, an insufficiently hawkish tone from the Fed has had a negative impact on the dollar. The greenback thus weakened against sterling and both the Aussie and New Zealand dollar. At the same time, EURUSD and USDJPY held steady around recent levels.
The Brent oil price returned to around $80 a barrel, but it was unable to build up a strong enough head of steam just yet. The mixed price action in energy resources led to the OPEC+ meeting being pushed back from the 26th to the 30th of November, with the media attributing this postponement to a lack of consensus on production cuts. Some countries, such as Angola and Nigeria, want to increase production.
Key events of the current week
The US. GDP growth rate | DATE 29.11 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US economy, despite the Fed's rather tight monetary policy, is demonstrating stability. At the same time, the inflation rate is gradually decreasing, which gives us reason to believe that the US regulator will at the very least refrain from any further hikes. And this is good news for the country's economy. According to adjusted forecasts from analysts around the world, the country's GDP will continue to grow, and fairly rapidly at that. And this is a positive factor for the dollar since a stable economy will allow the regulator to take appropriate action as required. If the actual report is in line with projections, USDJPY could continue up to the 150.50 mark. | |||||
Germany. Retail Sales | DATE 30.11 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Domestic consumption plays a key role in every country's economy. Germany is no exception. Unfortunately, most sectors of the economy are still slowing. The latest PMI numbers, for instance, show that the industrial sector is still in decline. Domestic consumption, meanwhile, remains weak. Global analysts predict that retail sales will continue to decline compared to the same period last year. And this is bad news for the eurozone economy and the single currency.In the event of a drop in retail sales in Germany, the EURUSD pair may roll back to the 1.0840 level. | |||||
The US. ISM Manufacturing PMI | DATE 01.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Over the past 11 months, business activity in the US industrial sector has been stuck below the key level of 50, which marks the border between growth and recession. The industrial sector is not as influential on the country's economic health as the services sector. Nevertheless, the decline in the indicator is a negative factor for the economy. Signs of a slowing economy are bad for the dollar, as they can lead to a change of stance for the US Federal Reserve, which has made it clear that rate cuts are not currently on the cards. Therefore, if the report is in line with projections, US indices could come under some short-term pressure. In this context, we could see the Cable continue on up to 1.2620. | |||||
