18.11.24 - 22.11.24
Results of the previous week
| NG +18.72% | TF +5.28% | XAUUSD +2.18% |
BABA -7.05% | SUGAR -3.74% | EURUSD -1.10% |
Last week, US indices attempted to start moving up again but failed to start a strong rally. A new round of geopolitical escalation acted as a restraining factor. In addition to that, US Federal Chairman Jerome Powell once again made clear that the country's central bank doesn't need to urgently cut interest rates again, which restrained indices' rise.
Amidst these factors, the US dollar looks fairly stable. It saw the strongest growth against the euro and pound sterling. This isn't surprising, however, since macroeconomic reports for Eurozone countries and the UK reflected a significant deterioration in the economic situation. That's why both the euro and pound look like outsiders compared to the dollar.
Brent crude oil prices found support at $70.70. They couldn't dip lower than that before they began to rise again. In terms of fundamental factors, the rise in energy prices was driven by the escalation in the geopolitical arena, which raised fears of disruptions in oil supplies.
Key events of the current week
US Federal Reserve meeting minutes | DATE 26.11 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The Fed cut its key interest rate at its last meeting. One catalyst for this reason was a drop in inflation and concerns about an economic slowdown. However, the Fed chairman subsequently stated on numerous occasions that the regulator would not rush to further ease monetary policy. When making its decisions, the Fed bases itself on incoming macroeconomic information. According to the latest data, US inflation began to rise again in November. It stood at 2.6%, up from 2.4% a month prior. As global analysts had expected, this lowered the probability of yet another round of quantitative easing from 80% to 60%. That is favourable for the dollar but negative for gold, which is denominated in it. Against this backdrop, XAU/USD could correct downward to 2630.00. | |||||
The US. Durable goods orders | DATE 27.11 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
This is one of the most important indicators for the health of the US economy. The number of durable goods orders attests to the rise in manufacturing PMI and the potential for new investments in companies. Over the last three months, the indicator has decreased. However, it's expected to change during the reporting period, according to global analysts' projections. An increase in the indicator is good news for the US dollar since it hints at economic stability and that the Federal Reserve doesn't need to rush to cut interest rates. In this scenario, USD/JPY could return to 156.30. | |||||
The eurozone. Inflation rate | DATE 29.11 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Eurozone inflation is falling, but there are fairly serious concerns about the region's overall economic health. Recent PMI data in key sectors saw a drop. It's worth noting that the service sector situation has dramatically worsened. PMI has fallen below the 50 mark. This all indicates that the eurozone is getting closer to a recession. Another drop in inflation could increase expectations of another interest rate cut by the ECB, which is bad news for the euro. Against this backdrop, the Fibre could continue to drop to somewhere around 1.0300. | |||||
