24.02.25 - 28.02.25
Results of the previous week
| JUVE +13.13% | COCOA +5.39% | USDCAD +1.24% |
NG -5.09% | XAGUSD -3.52% | NQ -2.10% |
Trump once again spoke about raising tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and Europe. The escalation in his trade wars has lowered interest in risk-on assets. This caused the US stock market to decline, with the Nasdaq suffering the biggest fall. Macroeconomic data served as additional negative factors. For example, new home sales in the US collapsed by 10.5%.
Trump's threat to impose tariffs on goods made in Europe brought EUR/USD down, with GBP/USD declining, too. Gold also pulled away from its highs, though this was caused by a technical correction.
Brent crude oil prices have fallen to $72 per barrel. The dollar's strengthening was one factor that put pressure on the energy resource. Trump's announcement that he would impose higher tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico starting on 4 March caused concern about the global economy's prospects. This also negatively affected oil.
Key events of the current week
| The US. Services PMI (ISM) USD/JPY | DATE 05.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US Federal Reserve has repeatedly noted that the labour market and inflation rate serve as the cornerstone for its decision-making regarding interest rates. That said, the regulator does keep an eye on other important macro reports. The services PMI report is one such report. Global analysts expect this indicator to remain relatively unchanged. This is good news for the US economy since the service sector accounts for approximately 75% of the country's GDP. That means there's no reason for the Fed to rush to cut its key interest rate, which is favourable to the dollar. In this context, USD/JPY could continue to rise to 152.40. | |||||
| ECB key interest rate decision EUR/USD | DATE 06.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The situation in the European economy remains complicated. Germany, in particular, is in a recession, which is confirmed by the latest GDP growth rate data. Meanwhile, the Eurozone is seeing inflation accelerate. However, despite rising inflation, the ECB intends to foster economic growth by easing its monetary policy. Global analysts expect the European regulator to cut its key interest rate again. This is unfavourable for the euro. In this environment, EUR/USD could decline to 1.0250. | |||||
| The US. Non-farm payrolls XAU/USD | DATE 07.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The latest US labour market numbers were mixed. The number of new jobs fell sharply, but unemployment also declined. Global analysts expect that non-farm jobs will be created at a higher pace during the reporting period while unemployment will remain unchanged. The labour market's current condition allows the Federal Reserve to maintain its stance that there is currently no need to cut interest rates. This is good news for the dollar but unfavourable for assets denominated in it, such as gold. In this context, XAU/USD could decline to 2835.00. | |||||
