03.02.25 - 07.02.25
Results of the previous week
| COFFEE +4.75% | XAUUSD +2.77% | NG +3.11% |
COCOA -9.40% | PA -6.70% | VIX -5.25% |
US indices traded mixed last week. Paradoxically, they were supported by insufficiently strong data, which has raised hopes that the US Federal Reserve will still consider another potential interest rate cut. Trump imposing higher tariffs on goods from China exerted short-term pressure.
The dollar fell amid a higher-than-expected rise in layoffs. Industrial goods orders data added to the negative environment. In this environment, most of the dollar's competitors strengthened. Gold, for example, set a new high at 2882.00.
Brent crude oil prices have fallen to $74 per barrel. Prices once again came under pressure from US oil reserves data, which rose much stronger than anticipated. In addition, markets are continuing to assess the outlook for trade between the US and China, the latter of which is a major oil consumer.
Key events of the current week
| The US. Inflation rate USD/JPY | DATE 12.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
At its latest meeting, the US Federal Reserve decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged. At the same time, Fed representatives announced that the state of the economy is not a cause for concern and doesn't yet require immediate monetary policy easing. Moreover, inflation remains above the Fed's target level. Global analysts expect inflation to remain at December levels during the reporting period. This indicator's movement will allow the Fed to maintain its fairly tight monetary policy. This is good news for the dollar. In this scenario, USD/JPY could return to 153.40. | |||||
| The UK. GDP growth rate GBP/USD | DATE 13.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
High energy prices and relatively high inflation continue to negatively impact the British economy. The manufacturing PMI remains in the 'decline' zone, which is also the case for the services PMI. Global analysts nevertheless expect the year-over-year Q4 GDP growth rate to accelerate slightly. In the current environment, that's good news for the British pound. Against this backdrop, GBP/USD could rise to 1.2580. | |||||
| The US. Retail sales EUR/USD | DATE 14.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Retail sales are the total of all goods and services sold. This is a very important indicator for the United States' service-orientated economy. Domestic consumption makes it possible to assess Americans' willingness to spend money. Global analysts expect the indicator's growth rate to remain almost at the previous month's level. This is good news for the dollar since it confirms that the US economy is stable and allows the US Federal Reserve not to cut its key interest rate. This is unfavourable for the dollar's competitors, such as the euro. In this environment, EUR/USD could decline to 1.0240. | |||||
