10.02.25 - 14.02.25
Results of the previous week
| COCOA +5.48% | NG +5.08% | VIX +2.69% |
COFFEE -4.15% | WT -2.37% | USDCHF -1.23% |
Last week, macroeconomic reports took a back seat to the impact Trump's comments had on market movements. Despite increased volatility, US indices showed a slight increase amid reports that higher tariffs on European goods will not be introduced until at least 1 April, the date when the US president expects a report on other countries' unfair trade practices against the US. The indices also received support from Trump's steps to resolve geopolitical tensions.
The dollar was down after Trump's willingness to justify an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve even amid high inflation. The US dollar declined against the euro, pound, yen and Canadian dollar. In light of the probable start of a new stage of trade wars, gold set a new all-time high, surpassing 2900.00.
Brent oil traded mixed. The energy resource was supported by China and the US imposing tariffs on each other. Higher inflation and US crude oil reserves negatively impacted oil prices. US crude oil supplies increased again.
Key events of the current week
| Germany. ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment EUR/USD | DATE 18.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Germany's latest GDP growth report confirmed that the economy is in recession. The indicator dropped by 0.2% year over year. Signs of a recession are dampening economic sentiment and six-month outlooks on the economy's prospects. Global analysts expect that the indicator of economic sentiment from the ZEW institute will grow. But this is unlikely to force the ECB to step back from easing monetary policy, which is negative for the euro. In this scenario, we could see EUR/USD fall to somewhere around 1.0350. | |||||
| The UK. Inflation rate GBP/USD | DATE 19.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
At its last meeting, the Bank of England cut is interest rate in the hopes of stimulating the British economy despite inflation remaining above the regulator's target level. Inflation remains at the regulators centre of attention when it makes monetary policy decisions. Global analysts expect inflation to rise slightly in the reporting period. But the Bank of England has made it clear that they are now more concerned about the state of the economy rather than increased price pressures. If inflation rises below expectations, this will allow the regulator to continue the cycle of monetary policy easing. This will allow the Bank of England to continue its monetary policy softening cycle, which is unfavourable for the British pound. Against this background, GBP/USD could decline to 1.2400. | |||||
| The US. US Federal Reserve meeting minutes XAU/USD | DATE 19.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is true to his word. The head of the US central bank has repeatedly made clear that the regulator is prepared to abstain from further interest rate cuts. At its last meeting, the regulator kept the key rate unchanged. The meeting minutes are unlikely to change expectations about the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. The US economy is stable, and inflation in the country is accelerating. This is good news for the dollar but unfavourable for assets denominated in it, such as gold. In this context, XAU/USD may correct to 2900.00. | |||||
