18.03.24 - 22.03.24
Results of the previous week
| COCOA+7.43 | NG +5.71% | NQ+1.82% |
VIX -5.22% | PA -2.32% | NZDUSD -1.32% |
US indices were up once again. This was largely due to statements from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell following the FOMC's latest meeting. Powell confirmed that the key interest rate could be cut by 0.75% by the end of 2024. Softening lending conditions is good news for the real sector.
The US dollar managed to strengthen on the back of positive US economic growth forecasts announced after the Fed meeting and an unexpected rate cut by the Swiss Central Bank. The Bank of England kept its key interest rate unchanged and voiced concerns about the sustainability of the economy, which put further pressure on the pound. The main surprise came from the Bank of Japan, which hiked rates for the first time in 17 years. That said, the yen fell on this news.
Brent crude oil prices reached $87.17 at one point but later began to pull back. The negative impact on energy prices was caused by reports of renewed calls for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which could lead to a reduction in supply disruptions from the Middle East. Oil is also quoted in dollars, so the dollar's rise has also contributed to lower oil prices.
Key events of the current week
The US. Durable goods orders | DATE 26.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Durable goods orders are an important indicator because they essentially forecast future demand for high-value goods and manufacturing activity. After a sharp collapse in the previous month, global analysts expect to see growth in the reporting month. This would be a positive development for the US economy, which is already feeling confident. The Fed even adjusted its 2024 US GDP growth forecast upward from 1.4% to 2.1% at the end of its last meeting. The stable state of key macroeconomic reports is good news for the US dollar. In this scenario, USD/JPY may continue to move towards 152.00. | |||||
The US. EIA oil reserves data | DATE 27.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
In general, forecasts on the global balance of oil supply and demand have indicated a deficit, something that has been supporting oil prices in recent weeks. According to previously released data, the US saw two consecutive weeks of declines in crude oil and petrol inventories. This is also good news for oil, especially as we approach the summer travel season in the United States. This trend's continuation towards lower energy reserves is pushing oil prices upwards.In this scenario, Brent oil may attempt to return to the resistance level at 87.00. | |||||
The UK. GDP growth rate | DATE 28.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK economy has felt the full impact of rising energy prices, changing supply chains and rising inflation. The pace of economic growth has been slowing recently. Global analysts forecast that GDP growth rates will show a negative growth rate year-over-year. The cooling economy is an argument in favour of the Bank of England moving to ease its monetary policy sooner than planned despite high inflation. These are negative factors for the pound. Against this background, GBP/USD may continue to decline toward 1.2500. | |||||
![When will the Fed cut interest rates? Keeping an eye on stats [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/news/shutterstock_394537039_26.jpg?itok=DAHK_baT)
