16.12.24 - 20.12.24
Results of the previous week
| NG +8.30% | VIX +7.84% | USDJPY +1.66% |
SUGAR -5.57% | PA -3.08% | NQ -1.79% |
Last week, US indices were down The alarm was caused by his comments on the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. The head of the American regulator said the economy was showing robustness, but inflation remained above the target level. This calls for a measured approach to further rate cuts.
Powell's comments provided significant support to the US dollar, which strengthened against most currencies and against gold. It is worth noting that the Bank of England's decision to keep rates unchanged passed unnoticed by the markets, against the backdrop of the Fed chief's comments, and did not affect the British pound's exchange rate.
Prices for Brent crude dropped to $72 a barrel. One key factor behind the fall was the strengthening of the dollar. The markets are also afraid that a hard monetary policy by the Federal Reserve could potentially trigger a weakening of the world economy, with negative consequences for the demand for oil.
Key events of the current week
The US. Durable goods orders | DATE 23.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Durable goods orders are an important indicator of the health of the US economy. World analysts expect this indicator to rise in the reporting period – a positive signal for the economy. The growth in orders is evidence of rising productive capacity and of a demand for more investment in industry. Economic stabilisation will allow the US Federal Reserve to take its time over further rate cuts, which is positive for the American dollar – but negative for assets denominated in USD. Gold (XAU/USD) may therefore continue to fall, towards a level of $2555.00. | |||||
The US. CB Consumer Confidence Index | DATE 23.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The consumer confidence indicator has risen over the last three months, confirming the improved public mood with inflation coming down. But price pressure has strengthened once again, and the US Federal Reserve has adopted a more cautious stance towards weakening its monetary policy. In this context, world analysts are expecting the confidence indicator to drop somewhat, which could have a negative effect on the dollar rate. The USD/JPY pair could fall to 155.40. | |||||
The US. New jobless claims | DATE 26.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The American labour market is looking comparatively stable. Unemployment is currently at 4.2%. New job creation has sped up. Meanwhile, the number of new dole applications per week is around 220,000. These figures show the load on the economy is not rising, which allows the Federal Reserve to act carefully in softening its monetary policy. This is favourable for the American dollar, but negative for its competitors – e.g. the euro. This report suggests the EUR/USD pair may try to sink as low as 1.0300. | |||||
