13.01.25 - 17.01.25
Results of the previous week
| HO +4.56% | TF +3.63% | XAGUSD +2.55% |
VIX -5.85% | SUGAR -3.44% | NG -3.29% |
This past week, US indices tried to regain their previous losses. They received moderate support from inflation data. Markets had expected inflation to increase, preferring to focus on the base indicator, which doesn't take into consideration food and energy. This figure had fallen from 3.3% to 3.2% the month prior. This brought back expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut its key interest rate in the foreseeable future.
The US dollar managed to strengthen against its major opponents. The reason for this lies in comments made by the future US Treasury Secretary. Scott Bessent stated that the United States must keep its status as a global reserve currency. That means that the new administration isn't planning to take measures to weaken the dollar.
At one point, Brent crude oil reached $82.60 per barrel, its highest point since August 2024. The energy resource's price is receiving support from concerns that a deficit is forming in the global energy market because of sanctions on Russian exports. Oil prices were also boosted by data showing another reduction in US reserves.
Key events of the current week
Germany. ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment | DATE 21.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy is in distress. Over the past several quarters, it's been in a recession. In this environment, business sentiment is low. Global analysts expect this indicator to decline. This will be another sign for the ECB that the economy needs further stimulus. Expectations of a rate cut by the European regulator are unfavourable for the euro. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD could continue down to somewhere around 1.0160. | |||||
The US. Conference Board Leading Economic Index | DATE 22.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US economy is in good shape. Key indicators were up, as is inflation. In this context, US Federal Reserve officials have made it clear that they're prepared to put the rate-cutting cycle on pause. Global analysts expect the next interest rate cut to come only in September 2025. The rise in leading economic indicators is another positive signal for the country's economy and the US dollar. | |||||
The UK. Manufacturing PMI | DATE 24.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
UK manufacturing has felt the full brunt of high energy prices and supply chain changes. The sector's PMI has been declining since September 2024. In November, the indicator crossed the barrier at 50, signalling a drop in the sector. Global analysts expect the index will remain below 50 during the reporting period. This confirms that the economy is cooling down. Lower macroeconomic indicators are bad news for the British pound. Against this background, the GBP/USD could decline to 1.2100. | |||||
