05.05.23 - 19.05.23
Results of the previous week
| NG +14.00% | NQ +3.05% | USDJPY +1.26% |
WHEAT -9.10% | HSI -2.54% | XAUUSD -1.97% |
US indices showed moderate growth after they received support amid hopes that the crucial national debt problem would be resolved. Officials in Washington said that they're making progress on the debt ceiling negotiations. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said he didn't believe the US would declare a default on its debts. President Joe Biden also said he's confident that lawmakers will come together to reach an agreement and avoid a default. A solution is expected to be reached next week.
Positive expectations of a resolution to the US national debt ceiling issue being found have strengthened the US dollar. It managed to grow against most other assets= and received another wave of support from macrostatistics. The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey out of the Federal Reserve's Philadelphia branch beat expectations. The number of initial unemployment claims figures were also better than expected, coming in at 242,000 against a forecast of 270,000.
Brent (BRN) crude oil prices are moving to the upper edge of the 71.50–77.30 range established over the past few weeks. Concerns regarding the demand for oil and global economic health are key factors affecting the price dynamics of the energy resource. The fact that the US will most likely avoid default is providing moderate support.
Key events of the current week
The UK. Inflation rate | DATE 24.05 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Inflation in the UK remains at all-time highs despite all of the Bank of England's actions aimed at curbing price pressure. It's primarily due to high food prices, which have risen at the fastest rate since 1977 and the energy supply. The Bank of England is signalling that it is waiting for inflation to slow down to 4% by the end of the year. The regulator may hint that it's ready to pause its rate hikes, which have already occurred 12 times. If the report meets the expectations and price pressure declines, this raises hopes for a more dovish approach from the central bank, which could put pressure on the pound. In such a scenario, the Cable could drop to 1.2280. | |||||
The US. US Federal Reserve meeting minutes | DATE 24.05 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
US price pressure continues to fall. This is a good reason for the US Fed to slow its move to raise its interest rate, which is at its highest point since 2006. Economic indicators, on the other hand, are relatively stable now. But the banking crisis and uncertainty regarding the US national debt ceiling are now posing risks. That's why markets will be looking at the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting minutes for hints about the Fed's next moves. And if the regulator is ready to pause, the dollar will come under pressure, which is positive for greenback-denominated assets.In this case, we could see gold (XAU/USD) return to somewhere around 2016.70. | |||||
The US. Durable goods orders | DATE 26.05 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Durable goods order data directly reflect the general population's willingness to spend large amounts of money. Recent events — specifically, the crash of several banks and the uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling — could lead to people starting to form a financial safety cushion by limiting unnecessary spending. This isn't the best option for the real sector because a drop in this indicator may also cause pressure on the US dollar. In this scenario, its opponents may take advantage of its weakness. In such a scenario, we could see the Fiber move up to 1.0930. | |||||
