11.11.24 - 15.11.24
Results of the previous week
| COCOA +17.97% | VIX +3.75% | USDCAD +1.20% |
TSLA -7.52% | TF -5.24% | WT -1.67% |
Last week, U.S. indices underwent a downward correction. This is not surprising: optimism about election results has given way to macroeconomics. Consumer inflation and producer-level inflation data showed an increase. It brought to the forefront expectations that the US Fed will not initiate another rate cut in December, which exerted moderate pressure on the indices.
In the forex market, the dollar strengthened against most competitors. The EUR/USD pair fell to its yearly low. The USD/CAD pair rose to its highest level since May 2020. Gold retreated from previous highs amid the rising US currency. The reason for such dynamics is likely the strength of the dollar. However, some counterparts, such as the British pound, are incurring losses also due to their weak macro data.
Brent crude prices remain under moderate pressure. On one hand, the reason lies in the strength of the dollar. On the other, concerns about China's economy, the world's largest oil importer, continue to apply pressure on energy commodities. The Chinese economy is showing signs of slowing, which could negatively affect oil demand. Markets also reacted negatively to the IEA forecast, which predicts global oil supply will exceed demand by 1 million b/d in 2025.
Key events of the current week
The UK. Inflation rate | DATE 20.11 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
By the end of the third quarter, the UK's economic growth rate slowed once more. Growth was just 0.1% compared to 0.5% in the previous period. According to the latest data, there is a decline in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) the figure dropped below 50, which is an alarming signal. The weakness of the economy is forcing the Bank of England to cut rates. However, global analysts expect a slight rise in the country's inflation rate, preventing the British regulator from further easing monetary policy at the next meeting. That will be good news for the pound. Against this backdrop, the GBP/USD pair could make an upward correction to 1.2800. | |||||
Germany. GDP growth rate | DATE 22.11 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy, the largest within the eurozone, is in distress. Indeed, Germany's GDP growth rates are slowing. Over the past five quarters, the indicator has been negative, signalling a recession. And the situation is worsening: German automakers face challenges, and business activity in the industrial sector continues to remain in a downturn. All this is unfavourable for the monetary bloc's indicators as a whole. The cooling of the European economy is negative for the euro as it increases expectations of another ECB rate cut. Under these circumstances, the EUR/USD pair may continue its decline towards 1.0460 – the October 2023 low. | |||||
The US. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index | DATE 22.11 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
After Donald Trump won the US Presidential election with the slogan "America First," sentiment in the States has clearly improved. Global analysts also expect an improvement in the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index. Indications of stability in the US economy allow the Fed to refrain from rushing into another rate cut at the December meeting Taken together, all these factors are positive for the dollar. In this context, the USD/JPY pair may continue its upward rally to 157.60. | |||||
