27.11.23 - 01.12.23
Results of the previous week
| COFFEE+9.68% | XAGUSD +3.95% | TF+2.92% |
NG -9.58% | PA -8.45% | VIX -1.22% |
Overall, US indices saw positive movement at the end of the week. The decline in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index was further confirmation that inflation in the US is gradually weakening. This means that the Fed will likely not continue to tighten monetary policy, which provided key support to indices.
The forex market saw mixed dynamics. The US dollar weakened against the New Zealand and Canadian dollars, but it managed to strengthen against the pound and the euro. However, this looks like a technical correction for now. Some optimism was added by the revised data on the US GDP growth rate, which more than doubled the preliminary estimate.
Brent oil, meanwhile, traded mixed. The energy resource was supported by OPEC+ countries finally reaching an agreement on additional production cuts despite all the difficulties. Oil prices were negatively affected by PMI data from China (the world's largest oil importer). The indicator declined to the lowest point in a year.
Key events of the current week
The US. Services PMI (ISM) | DATE 05.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
For the service-oriented US economy, the state of the service sector is a crucial indicator of its health. It's worth noting that despite the tight monetary policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve, the US economy is looking quite confident. At the same time, the latest comments of the regulator's representatives make it clear that they won't rush to further rate hikes or roll them back either. As such, macroeconomic indicators are of particular importance. Global analysts expect business activity to decline slightly but remain above the 50 mark that divides the sector's territory between growth and decline. However, a lower indicator harms the dollar. In such a scenario, USD/JPY could return to 147.00. | |||||
Canada. Bank of Canada interest rate decision | DATE 06.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The Bank of Canada's rates are at their highest level since 2001. At its last two meetings, the regulator kept the rate at 5%. The decision was justified by increasing signs of reduced economic activity and price pressure as a result of previous actions. Inflation in Canada is slowly declining, coming in at 3.1%, according to the latest data. The Bank of Canada notes that the rate of decline is quite low and says a further rate hike is still possible. According to global analytical agencies' forecasts, no changes are expected at the December meeting. This is bad news for the Canadian dollar.With an unchanged interest rate, the USD/CAD pair may continue to decline to 1.3435. | |||||
The US. Non-farm payrolls | DATE 08.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US economy continues to show impressive results, with its growth rate accelerating. This allows the US Federal Reserve to take further action to tighten the country's monetary policy if necessary. However, US inflation is gradually slowing down, And the labour market, although quite stable for now, is still seeing a slower pace of job creation. Global analysts forecast that only 100,000 new jobs were created in November. This isn't good for the dollar, but its weakness provides support to its opponents. For example, EUR/USD may attempt to return to 1.1000. | |||||
