03.08.29 - 07.08.26
Results of the previous week
| XAGUSD +10.68% | NQ +3.56% | GBPJPY +1.32% |
AMC -10.45% | VIX -5.30% | WT -2.16% |
US stock indices traded mixed last week. In the first half of the week, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 climbed on the back of de-escalation in the Middle East, easing expectations of further Fed tightening and strong corporate earnings. Indices later pulled back, however, as investors took profits and oil prices rose.
In the currency markets, USD/JPY was the most volatile pair. At the start of the week, the US and Japan carried out a joint intervention to support the yen, but the pair subsequently reversed course. Fundamentally, the yen remains on the back foot against the dollar, given the wide interest rate differential between the Fed and the Bank of Japan. The euro and the pound held relatively high levels against the dollar, supported by upbeat macroeconomic data.
Brent crude prices continue to be driven by news flow from the Middle East. Hopes of an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz weighed on prices in the short term, but these expectations failed to materialise and Brent returned to $82 a barrel.
Key events of the current week
| US: Inflation rate XAU/USD | DATE 12.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Tensions in the Middle East persist, periodically driving up energy prices. Against this backdrop, inflation remains above the Fed's target. Analysts expect a slight easing in inflation for the period under review. This could reinforce expectations of a pause in Fed rate hikes, putting pressure on the dollar while supporting dollar-denominated assets. In this environment, XAU/USD could rise to 4400.00. | |||||
| UK: GDP growth rate GBP/USD | DATE 13.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK economy faces the same challenges as the rest of Europe. High energy prices are fuelling inflation and dampening consumer spending, weighing on the economy. Analysts expect quarterly GDP growth to slow. That would leave the Bank of England with a difficult choice: tackle inflation or support economic growth. A slowdown in this key indicator would be negative for the pound, and GBP/USD could fall to 1.3340. | |||||
| US: Retail sales EUR/USD | DATE 14.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Despite high geopolitical uncertainty, the US economy remains resilient. Meanwhile, rising energy prices have pushed up petrol prices at the pump, adding to inflationary pressure. Nevertheless, consumer spending is gradually recovering. Analysts expect US retail sales growth to accelerate, which is positive for the economy and a bullish signal for the dollar. In this environment, EUR/USD could decline to 1.1440. | |||||
