23.06.25 - 27.06.25
Results of the previous week
| PL +6.41% | COCOA +4.38% | NQ +3.75% |
VIX -9.91% | BRN -3.67% | USDJPY -1.56% |
US indices rose last week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new all-time highs. Increased high-tech stock prices supported the indices. Easing geopolitical tensions and expectations that the Fed could cut rates earlier than expected also served as positive factors.
In the forex market, the US dollar began to fall again against most major currencies. The primary source of pressure on the dollar was higher expectations that the Fed will cut rates soon. The negative environment was exacerbated by reports that US President Donald Trump is considering replacing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who refuses to adhere to Trump's demands to reduce the regulator's key interest rate, before the end of this year.
Brent crude oil has reached $65,90 a barrel. The end of the military conflict between Iran and Israel put pressure on the energy resource. Anticipation of OPEC+ increasing production is negatively affecting oil prices because higher supply could lead to a surplus on the market.
Key events of the current week
| The eurozone. Inflation rate EUR/USD | DATE 01.07 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
At the latest ECB meeting, the regulator's representatives made it clear that they are prepared to wrap up their monetary policy easing cycle. In this situation, inflation's movement plays a particularly important role. Global analysts expect the inflation rate to rise, which would confirm the need for a pause in rate cuts. Given that confidence in the dollar has been declining lately, this is an additional positive sign for the euro. In this context, the EUR/USD pair may continue to rise to a four-year high of 1.1850. | |||||
| The US. ISM Manufacturing PMI USD/JPY | DATE 01.07 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Finalised data show that the US Q1 2025 GDP growth rate fell by 0.5% versus Q4 2024. This confirms concerns that the US economy is beginning to slow down. Both the manufacturing and service sectors declined. Global analysts expect the manufacturing PMI to remain below 50, which will confirm the sector's decline. As such, it becomes increasingly likely that the US Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate. That's unfavourable for the dollar. In this environment, USD/JPY could continue to drop towards 141.60. | |||||
| The US. Non-farm payrolls XAU/USD | DATE 03.07 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US labour market's health is one of the main indicators that the US Federal Reserve look at when making interest rate decisions. Over the past three months, the number of new jobs created has been declining. This is an alarming signal for the economy, which has already fallen compared to the previous quarter. Global analysts expect this negative trend to continue, reflecting a further deterioration in the labour market. This increases the chances of the Federal Reserve making a rate cut at one of its upcoming meetings. This would be unfavourable for the dollar, but good news for gold. In this context, XAU/USD could rise to 3330.00. | |||||
