16.06.25 - 20.06.25
Results of the previous week
| NG +9.68% | WHEAT +5.72% | PL +3.94% |
COCOA -9.89% | MRNA -3.29% | HSI -1.3% |
Last week, stock indices consolidated within narrow ranges due to high levels of uncertainty. Indices can't rise higher amidst the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policy. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve confirmed at its latest meeting that it will likely cut rates twice by the end of the year.
The dollar was predominantly strengthening against most other major opponents on the forex market. The US currency received a boost from the Fed's decision to leave interest rates unchanged for now. Moreover, the regulator made it known that, for now, it's ready to wait for more clarity regarding tariffs' impact on the economy's health before it makes any changes to its monetary policy.
Brent crude oil has reached $79 a barrel. The energy resource's price is rising due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, which could disrupt oil supplies since 40% of oil is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Concerns that the United States will intervene in the conflict are making the situation worse.
Key events of the current week
| Germany. IFO Business Climate Index EUR/USD | DATE 24.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy continues to show signs of weakness. High energy costs, workforce reductions at some companies and the risk of rising tariffs in foreign trade operations are holding back GDP growth. That said, global analysts believe the business climate index will improve. The business community's positive expectations stem from the ECB's relatively low interest rate, which makes borrowing money more affordable. Improved macroeconomic data are good news for the euro. In this context, EUR/USD could once again rise to its recent high at 1.1630. | |||||
| The US. GDP growth rate USD/JPY | DATE 26.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US economy is currently sending warning signals. For example, the retail sales numbers released last week showed a 0.9% decline against a forecast of -0.4%. The services PMI has entered into decline territory. As such, global analysts expect GDP growth rates to fall. This would signal to the Federal Reserve that the economy needs stimulus and would push the regulator to ease its monetary policy. That's unfavourable for the dollar. In this scenario, USD/JPY could decline to 143.60. | |||||
| The US. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index XAU/USD | DATE 27.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
When the Fed looks at whether it needs to change its key interest rate, the regulator focuses primarily on the labour market and inflation. The Core PCE Price Index is one of the main indicators of inflation. Global analysts expect this indicator to rise, a reflection of higher inflation. Increased inflation expectations confirm that the Federal Reserve doesn't currently have sufficient grounds to ease its monetary policy. A high key interest rate is favourable for the dollar but negative for dollar-denominated assets such as gold. In this context, XAU/USD could decline to 3300.00. | |||||
