21.08.23 - 25.08.23
Results of the previous week
| SUGAR+6.10% | HO +3.79% | HSI+2.48% |
VIX -5.01% | BA -2.01% | PA -1.46% |
US indices have been trading mixed this week. They received short-term support from the release of quarterly earnings reports by certain companies in the tech sector, such as Nvidia. The indices were negatively impacted by weaker-than-hoped-for numbers from the US, such as the PMI index's drop to its lowest value in six months and the weak figures for durable goods orders. That said, concerns remain that the US Fed will still continue to raise rates if needed.
In the currency market, the dollar continued to maintain its positions. Moreover, it was able to strengthen against the euro, the British pound and commodity currencies. One of the key factors supporting the dollar at this stage remains investors' flight from risk. In addition, the Fed is not completely ruling out the possibility of another rate hike, which also favours the US currency.
In the first half of the week, Brent crude oil (BRN) prices declined to 81.50 as a result of concerns about the outlook for energy demand in China. However, they then regained some ground. The turnaround was facilitated by reports of Tropical Storm Harold forming and approaching land in the Gulf of Mexico. Oil is also receiving support from OPEC+ countries' production cuts.
Key events of the current week
The US. CB Consumer Confidence Index | DATE 29.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
This index is a leading indicator of consumer spending, on which the lion's share of the US economy depends. Consumer confidence has been rising over the past few months amid easing price pressure in the country. However, the indicator is currently expected to decline slightly, which hints that people's assessments of the economy's prospects are looking more pessimistic. This, in turn, leads to a reduction in spending. When the indicator moves down, it puts pressure on the US dollar. In this context, USD/JPY may experience a short-term decline towards 144.60.. | |||||
Germany. Retail sales | DATE 31.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Domestic consumption plays an important role in most economies, and Germany is already seeing some negative trends. The country's GDP has been in negative territory for two consecutive quarters, indicating a recession. After a short-term surge, retail sales in the country are again showing a slump, reflecting lower consumption. The indicator is expected to remain negative. Given that the German economy is the largest in the Eurozone, the index's drop is bad news for the euro.If the report meets forecasts, EUR/USD will continue to fall to around 1.0680. | |||||
The US. Non-farm payrolls | DATE 01.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The situation in the US labour market is still quite stable. Unemployment is holding near multi-year lows, and the economy continues to create new jobs, albeit at a slightly slower pace than before. But overall, the US economy looks healthy, which means that, if necessary, the US Federal Reserve can continue to raise interest rates. That, in turn, provides support for the US currency. The US regulator had previously expressed its willingness to continue to act to curb inflation. As such, if the labour market report doesn't offer any serious disappointment and aligns with expectations, GBP/USD may continue to decline towards 1.2445. | |||||
