20.01.25 - 24.01.25
Results of the previous week
| COFFEE +5.92% | PA +3.51% | VIX +2.54% |
NG -13.68% | BRN -3.69% | AAPL -3.01% |
The US has a new president who promises to make America great again. His comments about imposing high tariffs on goods made outside the United States gave markets confidence that domestic producers would benefit. As a result, last week, US indices were mostly up.
The dollar declined against most of its rivals. However, the US currency's decline looks like a technical correction at this point. This is because the uncertainty of the United States' trade policy never disappeared. It's just that investors were relieved that new tariffs weren't imposed on Inauguration Day.
Brent crude oil prices fell to $77 per barrel. Trump's first executive orders were the key factor in how the energy resource moved. He removed restrictions on oil and gas drilling, which could potentially increase the amount of oil available, disrupting the balance between supply and demand.
Key events of the current week
| The US. Durable goods orders XAU/USD | DATE 281.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
TDurable goods orders are an important indicator of the health of the US economy. It represents the number of orders made by manufacturers. This is favourable for the economy and signals a rise in investments in industry. In addition, an increase in this indicator also points to Americans' readiness to spend more. All of this speaks to the stability of the US economy and allows the Federal Reserve to hold off on cutting interest rates in the near term. This is good news for the dollar but unfavourable for assets denominated in it, such as gold. In this context, XAU/USD may decline to 2730.00. | |||||
| US Fed interest rate decision USD/JPY | DATE 29.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Inflationary pressure in the United States is increasing due to rising energy prices. According to the latest data, the consumer price index sat at 2.9%. Higher inflation allows the US Federal Reserve to pause key interest rate cuts. Fed representatives themselves have spoken about the likelihood of this outcome on a number of occasions. In addition, the US economy is showing resilience, which allows the regulator to keep its interest rate high.That's good news for the US dollar. In this scenario, USD/JPY could rise to 158.40. | |||||
| ECB interest rate decision EUR/USD | DATE 30.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Europe's economy is showing signs of a cooldown, while the Eurozone is seeing inflation accelerate. In that environment, European Central Bank (ECB) representatives have made it clear that their priority right now is to stimulate economic growth, not to keep inflation at its target level. Global analysts expect the European regulator to cut its key interest rate again. This is unfavourable for the euro, especially with the US Federal Reserve's rather aggressive monetary policy. In this environment, EUR/USD could decline to 1.0350. | |||||
