28.08.23 - 01.09.23
Results of the previous week
| WT+7.21% | NQ +3.03% | XAUUSD+1.25% |
VIX -10.92% | WHEAT -3.42% | BA -1.63% |
But when looking at the whole month's results, the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow Jones suffered losses. Markets are still very concerned that the US Fed Reserve will continue to hike interest rates, which is bad news for the real sector. However, data released last week show signs of the US economy cooling down, bringing high hopes that the Fed will pause its monetary restrictions.
Weak macroeconomic data from the US caused corrections in the currency market. The greenback recorded moderate losses against other majors, and objectively so. For example, inflation in the Eurozone accelerated more than expected, increasing the likelihood that the European Central Bank will increase interest rates at its next meetings. All in all, it can be expected that the US Fed may keep its interest rate at current levels.
Brent (BRN) returned to a price point of around $87.50, with several factors supporting this move. First, US oil reserves decreased. Second, there was a slight increase in China's industrial PMI, which is good news in terms of demand for oil. Third, Russia and OPEC+ agreed on a new reduction of oil exports to external markets.
Key events of the current week
Australia. Monetary policy decision | DATE 05.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The Reserve Bank of Australia has done 12 rate hikes to combat high inflation. The moves have yielded some results as price pressure is retreating, though inflation remains above the target rate of between 2% and 3%. Economic growth has somewhat slowed down, forcing the Australian regulator to ease the paces of its rate hikes. Right now, comments from representatives of the Reserve Bank of Australia are very important. At the end of the last meeting, they clarified that further monetary policy tightening may be required to curb inflation.Continuing to this tone supports the Australian dollar. In this scenario, AUD/USD may climb to 0.6520.. | |||||
The UK. PMI Services PMI | DATE 05.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK economy has seen better days. The annual growth rate hasn't exceeded 0.4% for the last three quarters, and worrying signals are coming from various sectors of the economy. The situation is tough in the service sector, which accounts for a significant part of GDP. PMI is gradually declining, and, according to the forecasts of various analytical agencies, it may cross the threshold separating growth from recession. This is bad news for the UK economy and the British pound. If the report is in line with predictions, the Cable could return to the support level of 1.2570. | |||||
The US. Services PMI (ISM) | DATE 06.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The service sector plays a crucial role in the US GDP. The latest data on economic growth rates somewhat disappointed markets. GDP growth in Q2 was only 2.1%, while well-known analytical agencies predicted a rate of 2.4%. So far, the situation in the US service sector remains quite stable. The indicator lingers above the 50 level, which separates the growth zone from the recession zone. However, after the weak GDP report, even a slight decrease in the indicator will lead to higher expectations that the US Federal Reserve won't raise rates at its next meeting. his is bad news for the dollar. In this context, we could see gold (XAU/USD) move to somewhere around 1965.00. | |||||
