29.07.24 - 03.08.24
Results of the previous week
| VIX +93.55 | CERS +16.75% | XAUUSD +2.13% |
NIY -17.64% | USDJPY -7.07% | NG -6.43% |
Last week, stock indices showed multidirectional dynamics. The US Federal Reserve chairman's comments that the regular is not ruling out a rate cut in September provided moderate support to indices. However, the ongoing corporate earnings season has made its own adjustments. Some companies (e.g., Intel) released clearly disappointing earnings reports that brought indices down in the second half of the week.
The Bank of Japan's decision to raise its interest rate to 0.25% provided significant support for the Japanese yen. USD/JPY declined to a four-month low. At the same time, the dollar managed to strengthen against most other currencies despite the fact that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had a fairly dovish tone about the results of the Fed's meeting. However, the escalating conflict in the Middle East has supported investor interest in the dollar.
Brent crude oil prices remain mostly under pressure amid fears of weaker demand. The only exception was Wednesday when the US Federal Reserve's hints that it may go for a rate cut as early as September brought back hopes that demand for energy resources would grow. Another factor keeping oil prices from falling sharply is the conflict in the Middle East, which threatens to interrupt oil supplies.
Key events of the current week
The US. Services PMI (ISM) | DATE 05.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The service industry plays a significant role in the United States' service-oriented economy. A month earlier, the services PMI fell below 50, the level that separates the growth zone from the recession zone, signalling that the service sector is cooling. However, global analysts expect the indicator to return to the growth zone in the reporting period. That's a positive signal for the economy. For the Fed, stable macro reports are a reason not to rush to start cutting rates. Signs of a healthy US economy are good news for the dollar. Against this background, USD/JPY could develop an upward correction to around 146,00. | |||||
Germany. Industrial production | DATE 07.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy has always been regarded as an industrialised economy. However, rising energy prices and changes in supply chains have shifted the way the largest industrial enterprises work. As a result, many companies are moving production to other countries. Over the past three months, industrial production has declined up to 2.5% per month. However, global analysts have positive expectations for the reporting period. They believe the indicator will rise by 1.4% compared to the previous month. This is a positive factor for both the German economy and the euro. Against this background, EURUSD may continue to grow up to 1,1030. | |||||
The US. New jobless claims | DATE 08.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The state of the labour market is one of the indicators that the US Federal Reserve takes into account when deciding its key interest rate. According to the latest data, the country's unemployment rate has been rising for three months. The number of initial unemployment claims also remains fairly high. This is a worrying sign. Coupled with signs of easing inflation, labour market weakness is acting as a catalyst for the Fed to cut rates. Expectations that the Fed will ease its monetary policy are bad news for the dollar. Against this background, the GBP/USD could start correcting upward to around 1,2900. | |||||
