09.12.24 - 13.12.24
Results of the previous week
| VIX +10.86% | COCOA +10.61% | HO +3.88% |
AMC -6.87% | XU -5.99% | XAGUSD -3.75% |
US indices showed mixed dynamics last week. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 set new highs again, led by high-tech stocks. The Dow Jones industrial index, on the other hand, suffered losses. Investors are cautious ahead of the release of the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
The dollar strengthened in the forex market. The US currency is supported by fairly stable macroeconomic indicators, which may lead to the Fed revising its stance on the key rate level.
Brent crude oil prices rose to $74 per barrel. The energy resource is supported by a decline in US commercial stocks and reports that the Biden administration is considering tougher sanctions on Russian oil exports.
Key events of the current week
The US. Retail sales | DATE 17.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The retail sales indicator reflects the total consumption of goods and services, which have a significant impact on GDP. That's why it's an important tool for assessing the state of the economy. Global analysts expect that the indicator will rise, which reflects Americans' willingness to spend more. With a stable labour market and increasing inflation, the growth in retail sales is an argument for the US Federal Reserve to refrain from cutting rates. And this will be good for the dollar. In this scenario, EUR/USD may decline to 1.0330. | |||||
US Fed interest rate decision | DATE 18.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US economy is stable, but despite this fact and statements from the Federal Reserve chairman that the regulator will make interest rate decisions based on incoming macroeconomic reports, global analysts expect the US regulator to cut the rate to 4.5%. According to data from the CME Group, the probability of such an outcome is 96.7%. A decision to engage in quantitative easing is unfavourable for the dollar but good news for dollar-denominated assets such as gold. With this news, XAU/USD could rise to 2720.00. | |||||
Bank of England interest rate decision | DATE 19.12 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
According to the latest figures, the UK GDP's annualised growth rate accelerated to 1% in Q3 2024. Inflation once again exceeded the Bank of England's 2% target, rising to 2.3%. This combination of indicators allows the Bank of England to take its time with rate cuts. Global analysts expect the British regulator to keep the country's key interest rate at 4.75%, which is good news for the pound. Against this backdrop, GBP/USD could rise to 1.2800. | |||||
