23.09.24 - 27.09.24
Results of the previous week
| XU +18.57% | HG +6.84% | COCOA +6.62% |
AMZN -3.14% | WT -2.58% | USDJPY -1.29% |
Last week, US indices stabilised around the highs that they had reached. It needs additional catalysts to keep rising. The Fed rate cut is already baked into prices. Economic reports were mixed, which didn't help raise expectations of another Fed rate cut.
The weakening dollar and increasing tensions in the Middle East helped gold reach new all-time highs. At the same time, the euro was unable to break through 1.1200. This is not surprising given the extremely weak data from the two largest economies in the monetary bloc. The PMI reports from Germany and France were disappointing.
Oil prices couldn't rise above $75 per barrel. As a result, they spent most of the way under pressure. That pressure came from news that Saudia Arabia is preparing to increase production. The country's government is determined to stick to the plan, under which OPEC+ will begin to gradually lift restrictions on oil production starting on 1 December. Libya has a chance to overcome the crisis that has caused a sharp reduction in its oil production. These two factors provide a basis to expect oil production to increase.
Key events of the current week
Germany's Manufacturing PMI | DATE 01.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy is showing signs of a cooldown. Some companies are announcing the transfer of funds from Germany. Others are cutting production. The environment is leading to job losses. This is negatively affecting both the services and manufacturing PMIs. The manufacturing PMI has been below 50 since July 2022, which indicates it's falling. Global analysts expect the indicator to continue to fall. That's bad news for the euro. In this context, EUR/USD could fall to 1.1070. | |||||
The US. Services PMI (ISM) | DATE 03.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The service sector is extremely important to the US economy since it accounts for approximately 75% of the country's GDP. For now, the indicator is staying in the growth zone (above 50), but it's gradually dropping, which is putting pressure on the US economy. Signs that the US economy is cooling down are increasing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will continue the monetary policy easing that it began at its September meeting. Rate cuts negatively affect the US dollar.Against this background, USD/JPY may decline to 141.00. | |||||
The US. Non-Farm Payrolls | DATE 04.10 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The Federal Reserve's priorities when making interest rate decisions are the labour market and the inflation rate. The US labour market continues to look relatively stable. but it's already giving some warning signs. Non-farm payrolls are starting to grow more slowly while the unemployment rate is rising. Given the US economy's heavy reliance on domestic consumption, a weaker employment situation increases the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve easing its monetary policy. This is bad news for the US dollar, but a weaker dollar is favourable for dollar-denominated assets such as gold. In this context, XAU/USD could continue to rise to 2700.00. | |||||
