27.02.23 - 03.03.22
Results of the previous week
| BA +7.62% | WT +4.94% | YM +1.55% |
VIX -8.65% | COFFEE -4.63% | GME -1.78% |
US indices traded mixed last week. They've come under pressure from the strong macroeconomic data (such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI report, which came in below expectations) and rhetoric out of the US Federal Reserve that it's not yet time to wrap up its monetary policy tightening. However, indices received support from strong corporate earnings reports. The communications services, technology, and commodities sectors saw the strongest growth.
Meanwhile, the Forex market also traded mixed. Major currency pairs spent most of the week in narrow ranges. Only commodity currencies strengthened slightly on the back of positive manufacturing PMI data out of China.
Brent crude oil ended the week slightly up, managing to rise above $85 a barrel at one point. The energy resource was buoyed by US strategic petroleum reserves data, which grew less than expected. Prices were also pushed upward by Russia's plans to cut its production and exports.
Key events of the current week
Germany. Retail sales | DATE 08.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
In any country's economy, domestic consumption plays an important role. Not only does it contribute significantly to GDP, but it also reflects citizens' confidence in the future. A drop in consumption could indicate either a sharp drop in people's standard of living or concerns about the future that lead to a drop in spending and an increase in savings. Since May 2022, German retail sales have been moving downward. The indicator is not expected to bring any positive news this time around, either. Amidst a slight drop in price pressure and signs of weakness in the economy, the European Central Bank could review its monetary policy stance.In that case, the EUR/USD pair could come under pressure, potentially moving to 1.0460. | |||||
The UK. GDP growth rate | DATE 10.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The British economy has suffered quite a bit from high energy prices. What's more, analysts note that it could be one of the first to slide into a recession. High inflation, supply chain disruptions and a drop in Britons' standard of living have negatively affected GDP growth rates. Based on last month's results, the economy has slowed more quickly than expected. At this point, GDP is not forecast to change. However, if data prove worse than expected, it could negatively affect the pound sterling. In this scenario, we could see the Cable fall to somewhere around 1.1840. | |||||
The US. Non-farm payrolls | DATE 10.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
January's US labour data contained a huge surprise: the economy had created the most new jobs since August 2022. What's more, the unemployment rate fell to its lowest point in 50 years. In normal circumstances, this would be good news. However, a stable economy and strong labour market coupled with fairly high inflation give the Federal Reserve room to keep raising interest rates to restrain price pressure. That's not the best-case scenario for the stock market. As such, positive non-farm payrolls and unemployment reports could put pressure on US stock indices. In this scenario, the S&P 500 could continue to fall to around 3800.00. | |||||
