08.04.24 - 12.04.24
Results of the previous week
| COCOA+11.73 | VIX +9.13% | XAGUSD+2.1% |
SUGAR -5.15% | NG -4.29% | YM -2.15% |
Last week, US stocks demonstrated mixed dynamics. The key factor that held back growth was inflation data. Inflation in the US rose more than expected. This has reduced the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will ease its monetary policy at one of its upcoming meetings. According to data from the CME Group, the probability of a rate cut at the June meeting has fallen to 23%.
However, for the US dollar, the inflation data that came out after a fairly strong labour market report was good news. The US currency managed to strengthen against most of its major opponents. The dollar reached a 34-year high with the yen. Even the ECB's decision to keep its interest rate at a 22-year high didn't help stop the euro from falling.
Brent crude oil prices are holding around $90 per barrel. The strengthening dollar restrained the rise in oil prices. However, they were kept from falling by concerns about worsening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which is fraught with disruptions in energy supplies.
Key events of the current week
The US. Retail Sales | DATE 15.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Domestic consumption is an important indicator of the nation's economic health. In January, the year-over-year indicator collapsed quite sharply. However, the recovery began in subsequent periods. Global analysts forecast that the positive trend will continue and that growth will increase. This movement confirms that the economy is still stable despite the US Federal Reserve's high interest rate. When coupled with high inflation, this reduces the likelihood that the regulator will start cutting interest rates any time soon. Positive macroeconomic statistics are favourable for the US dollar. In this context, USD/JPY may continue to move to new highs near 154.50. | |||||
Germany. ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment | DATE 16.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy has reacted extremely negatively to rising energy prices, changing supply chains and the ECB's high interest rate. As a result, declines were noted in most key industries. GDP has started to drop. In fact, the country has been in recession for a year. The ZEW Institute's indicator also showed the business community's negative sentiment. However, it has finally moved into positive territory in the past five months, and global analysts predict this trend will continue. The improvement in ZEW's economic sentiment index indicates that the country's business community expects positive changes in the economy in the coming months, and that's positive for the euro. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD may roll back to around 1.0740. | |||||
The UK. Inflation rate | DATE 17.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Inflation in the UK is gradually easing. That will finally allow the Bank of England to start easing its monetary policy soon. This is important at this stage if the British economy is to finally start to get out of its current difficult situation. Global analysts predict that the country's inflation rate will continue to decline. That will strengthen expectations that the BOE will cut its key interest rate, and this will contrast with expectations for the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, where inflation doesn't yet allow it to transition to monetary policy easing. These expectations are unfavourable for the pound. In this scenario, GBP/USD could continue to decline towards 1.2400. | |||||
