05.06.29 - 09.06.02
Results of the previous week
| VIX +10.34% | TF +2.31% | AUDUSD +1.56% |
BRN -4.59% | PA -3.80% | COFFEE -1.32% |
US indices showed mixed dynamics ahead of the US Fed's upcoming meeting. And even with the national debt ceiling issue being resolved, indices failed to gain upward momentum. This is partly due to growing concerns about the future of the world economy and weak US macroeconomic statistics.
In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar remained under moderate pressure. Weak data on weekly jobless claims fuelled expectations of the US Fed to pause its rate hike, despite inflation being twice higher than the target level set by the regulator. While the European Central Bank is determined to keep raising its interest rate, the Reserve Bank of Australia very unexpectedly increased its rate by 0.25% at its last meeting.
Brent (BRN) oil prices started the week on a positive note but ended it with a moderate decline. The reason for this was OPEC+'s decision. Here's a reminder that following its 4 June meeting, the alliance announced an extension of the deal to 2024 and a reduction in its overall oil production target by 1.4 million bpd from next year. Markets first greeted the potential decrease in supply positively. But then concerns followed regarding global oil demand amid a slowdown in some major economies, causing prices to drop.
Key events of the current week
Germany. ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment | DATE 13.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Economic sentiment continues to deteriorate. Last month, the indicator entered negative territory. This indicates that analysts' optimism regarding the outlook for the German economy over the next six months has worn thin. And there's a reason behind it: according to the latest data, the country's economy has fallen into a technical recession. The ZEW Indicator is expected to demonstrate further decline. If the report matches expectations, the German DAX index will come under pressure and get as low as 15,690.00. | |||||
The US. Inflation rate | DATE 13.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US Fed has held multiple rate hikes to curb inflation, and it has succeeded overall. US price pressure has continued to fall for the past nine months. According to reports, these dynamics are predicted to remain in the report period. The inflation is expected to drop to 4.7%. If the report meets forecasts, it may support expectations of the Fed's pausing its rate hikes, and the Fed's dovish sentiments harm the dollar. As a result, it gets weaker against other major currencies.In case the US inflation continues to decline, EUR/USD will continue moving towards 1.0850. | |||||
US Fed rates decision | DATE 14.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US economy has definitely seen better days, despite being quite stable. The GDP growth slowed down to 1.3% against 2.6% in the previous quarter. This is partly due to the Fed's quite hawkish monetary policy with its multiple rate hikes. It was the signs of the economic cooldown that led the market to expect stable monetary policy at the end of the current meeting. Given the predictions come true and the rate will be kept at 5.25%, and the Fed will exercise a dovish sentiment regarding further monetary policy, the dollar will come under pressure. However, this will support assets denominated in it, especially gold. In fact, XAU/USD could move to $1,985 per Troy ounce. | |||||
