26.06.29 - 30.06.02
Results of the previous week
| TSLA +8.94% | SOYBEAN +4.81% | NQ +3.16% |
CORN -15.89% | NG -5.74% | PL -3.00% |
US indices are now stable once more following a brief correction. For the most part, this was due to strong movement in some sectors. Some of the biggest growth was in high-tech stocks as investors bet on development in cloud services and AI. In addition, the major banks were buoyed by positive stress-test results.
The Fed's intention to make further rate hikes, which Jerome Powell has now affirmed on multiple occasions, is having a positive impact on the dollar. What's more, the US dollar's key competitors are demonstrating further weakness amid underperforming macroeconomic indicators. Commodities-backed currencies are down on signs of economic weakness in China.
Brent continues to remain within the range between $71.90 and $78.00. The energy resource was buoyed by US commercial reserves data, which showed a sharp contraction of 9.6 million barrels in one go. Concerns over future demand for the energy resource amid tighter monetary policy from central banks worldwide also remain a significant negative factor.
Key events of the current week
Germany. PMI Services PMI | DATE 05.07 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
In contrast to the industrial sector, where economic activity is falling, the services sector is looking relatively stable for now. The indicator remains above the 50 mark, which designates the barrier between negative and positive growth. Nonetheless, the latest data have shown an unexpected increase in unemployment and a perceptible acceleration of price pressure in the country, which indicates that the already recessional economy continues to show signs of a further cool-down. In this context, the sign that things are worsening in the services sector is an additional negative factor for the euro. If the report is in line with forecasts, the pressure on EURUSD will remain and could see the Fibre drop as low as 1.0760. | |||||
US Federal Reserve meeting minutes | DATE 05.07 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
At its latest meeting, the US Federal Reserve decided to leave its monetary policy unchanged. Beyond that, the regulator was unequivocal that its rate hike cycle is still not over. Fed Chief Jerome Powell has upheld these sentiments on multiple occasions. As such, his comments about the number and time frames for these rate hikes are major focal points of the meeting's Minutes. The hawkish tone of the minutes will keep US Treasury bond yields high, which is traditionally good for the dollar. However, a stronger greenback is bad news for dollar-denominated assets such as gold (XAUUSD), for instance. Thus, the precious metal will likely continue downward to 1875.00 per Troy ounce. | |||||
US. Non-farm payrolls | DATE 07.07 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US economy is largely mixed at present. The labour market, however, remains fairly stable. Unemployment is steady at multi-year lows, and new jobs are being created. Yet, it's worth noting that the creation rate has ebbed and flowed over time. Notwithstanding, the Fed has no plans to halt its rate hike programme just yet. If the report is in line with forecasts, this will only serve as confirmation that the US regulator will press on with its current monetary policy. And this will be good for the dollar. Against such a backdrop, GBP/USD will remain under pressure as it continues to move down towards the 1.2530 mark. | |||||
