16.09.24 - 20.09.24
Results of the previous week
| SUGAR +19.00 | HO +3.79% | NQ +2.75% |
SPCE -6.90% | VIX -2.65% | PL -1.30% |
Last week, US indices were up and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hit all-time highs. The key support factor was the US Fed's decision to lower its lending rate by 50 basis points in one go. In an accompanying statement, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed optimism about the economy's outlook and inflation rates. The regulator's head has made it clear that it isn't ruling out cutting the rate to 4.25% by the end of 2024.
Gold hit an all-time high on the back of the US Federal Reserve's decision. The euro and the pound managed to strengthen against the dollar. The British currency had its own reason to rise: the Bank of England didn't follow the Federal Reserve's example, opting, instead, to keep its key interest rate unchanged at its last meeting. The yen reacted to the Bank of Japan's decision and comments from its governor by declining. The currency weakened after Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's statements that the regulator would not hesitate to act if the economy weakened.
For most of the week, Brent crude oil prices showed moderate growth. The energy resource was supported by the US Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates rather sharply, which allayed fears of falling demand. At the same time, the escalating conflict in the Middle East is negatively affecting supply, which is good news for oil prices.
Key events of the current week
Germany's IFO Business Climate Index | DATE 24.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The indicator reflects the current situation and business sentiment for the next six months. Currently, optimism is low. Supply chains are disrupted, and some companies are moving production overseas, leading to massive job cuts. Additional pressure comes from high energy prices. As a result, analysts expect the indicator to decline. Weakness in the eurozone's largest economy increases the likelihood of the ECB further easing its monetary policy, which has a negative impact on the euro. In these conditions, EUR/USD may decline to 1.1100. | |||||
The US. Durable goods orders | DATE 26.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Durable goods orders are essentially an indicator of upcoming producer activity, as they reflect the number of new orders to be supplied. This indicator plays an important role in assessing the state of the economy. Global analysts forecast that it will decline in the reporting period after a significant increase in the previous month. It also signals that the US economy is cooling. The slowdown in key indicators increases the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further.And this is negative for the dollar. USD/JPY may decline towards 142.00 after the weak report. | |||||
The US. Personal expenditures | DATE 27.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Personal expenditures are a key indicator of the consumption of goods and services in the US economy. Given that the services sector accounts for the bulk of the country's GDP, this indicator plays a crucial role in assessing economic activity. Its growth has accelerated in recent months, but analysts expect that trend to reverse. The slowdown in the growth of personal expenditures indicates a decline in the willingness of the population to increase current spending, which is a negative factor for the dollar. At the same time, the dollar's weakness is supporting the rise of dollar-denominated assets such as gold. In this situation, XAU/USD may continue to rise towards 2620.00. | |||||
