17.06.24 - 21.06.24
Results of the previous week
| AA +8.08 | PA +4.44% | YM +1.81% |
COCOA -7.15% | Bitcoin -6.33% | EURAUD -0.76% |
Early last week, US stock indices rose moderately. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs again before they began to correct. The indices are still moderately supported by rising high-tech sector stocks. Indices also received support from the lower-than-expected increase in retail sales. These figures were a sign of an economic cooldown, which increases anticipation that the US Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates amid signs.
In the forex market, the dollar was able to strengthen against the euro, the pound and the Japanese yen. However, this is more likely due to the weakness of its opponents rather than the strength of the dollar. The Bank of England did not cut its key interest rate at its last meeting. However, the release of inflation data, which fell to 1.9% in the UK, raises the likelihood that the regulator will do so soon. The European Central Bank's previous key interest rate decision and political uncertainty keep the euro under pressure.
Brent crude oil prices continued to rise and managed to consolidate above $85 per barrel. The energy resource is supported by data showing the reduction of inventories in the United States. In addition, there are signs of rising energy demand in Asia. That, in turn, positively affects expectations about supply and demand. The renewed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is also buoying oil prices.
Key events of the current week
The US. CB Consumer Confidence Index | DATE 25.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
US GDP growth slowed to 1.3%. At the same time, the country's unemployment rate rose to 4%. All this indicates that the country's economy is gradually cooling down. The situation doesn't look critical yet, but Americans' moods aren't changing for the better. Global analysts expect the consumer confidence index to decline in the reporting period. Deteriorating consumer expectations is another negative signal for the US economy and the US dollar since signs of an economic downturn encourage the US Federal Reserve to cut rates sooner. A weaker dollar is favourable for dollar-denominated assets such as gold. Against this background, XAU/USD may continue to move towards 2390.00. | |||||
The US. Durable goods orders | DATE 27.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Durable goods orders reflect the change in total new orders for goods that have a lifespan of over three years. This indicator is very important in assessing the health of the US economy because it reflects future activity in the manufacturing sector. In the reporting period, global analytical agencies expect a slowdown in the indicator's growth rate. This is a negative signal both for the economy, whose growth rate slowed significantly in Q1 (from 3.4% to 1.3%), and for the US dollar. In this scenario, USD/JPY may decline to 157.50. | |||||
The UK. GDP growth rate | DATE 28.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
After a disappointing Q4 2023, when the economy posted negative growth, Q1 2024 brought favourable news. GDP grew by 0.2%, which prevented the UK from slipping into a technical recession. In addition, according to the latest data, the inflation rate in the country decreased to 1.9%. As a result, retail sales in the country rose by 1.3% against a forecast of -1.0%. Inflation has moved closer to the Bank of England's target, allowing the regulator to transition to monetary easing, which is favourable for the real economy. Improving macroeconomic indicators are good news for the British pound. In this context, GBP/USD may return to around 1.2700. | |||||
