01.07.24 - 05.07.24
Results of the previous week
| TSLA +19.29 | XAGUSD +5.34% | NQ +2.79% |
NG -6.05% | VIX -1.86% | WHEAT -1.25% |
Last week, stock indices mainly showed growth. Nasdaq and S&P 500 update highs again. A number of weak US economic indicators (deterioration in business performance in the industrial sector and services: both fell below 50, which separates growth in the sector from recession) revived hopes that the US Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September. And this is what supported the indices.
Weak macroeconomic statistics put moderate pressure on the US dollar, as they increased the chances of an imminent start of the Fed's rate cut. At the same time, the British pound received support against the background of the publication of preliminary election results in the Uk. For the first time in 14 years, the ruling party wiil change.
Brent crude oil prices continued to show moderate growth. Quotes rose above $87 per barrel. buoyed by optimistic demand expectations. Commercial oil reserves in the United States fell by 12.16 million barrels, which indicates a high demand for fuel in the largest economy in the world. China is also going to replenish its crude oil reserves by 60 million barrels. Expectations of a Fed rate cut was also positive news.
Key events of the current week
The UK. GDP growth rate | DATE 11.07 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The British economy is not yet in its best shape. The only positive thing at this stage is the decline in inflation to the target level of the Bank of England, which allows the regulator to consider the possibility of easing monetary policy to stimulate economic growth. According to forecasts, the country's GDP will grow slightly, but the growth will be insignificant. However, coupled with the election victory of the Labour party which has pledged to restore economic growth, and the social sphere, this is a positive factor for the pound. Against this background, GBPUSD may continue to rise into the area of the resistance level of 1.2900. | |||||
The US. Inflation rate | DATE 11.07 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
While the Fed continues to maintain a tight monetary policy stance, the US inflation rate still remains above the regulator's target. In the last 3 months, price pressure has been easing, but at too slow a pace. At the same time, the growth rate of the economy in the country has slowed down significantly, which puts the Fed in a rather difficult position: on the one hand, it is necessary to deal with still high inflation, on the other, it is necessary to think about measures to stimulate the economy. But global analysts expect the inflation rate to continue to decline. This means that the Fed may still start cutting rates this year. And this is negative for the dollar. But positive for the assets nominated in it, for example, gold. Against this background, XAU/USD may continue to move towards 2425.00. | |||||
The US. Consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan | DATE 12.07 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
For the US service-oriented economy, the consumer sentiment index is very important. It shows how the population assesses their personal prospects and the prospects of the economy as a whole. In the last 3 months, the indicator has decreased. And this means that the population is less and less optimistic about its future against the background of high rates, gradual growth of unemployment and high inflation. However, according to the expectations of world analysts, in the reporting period, the indicator will grow slightly. And this is a positive factor for the dollar, since the improvement in the main macroeconomic indicators allows the US Federal Reserve not to rush to cut the rate. Against this background, EURUSD may return to the 1.0680 level. | |||||
