18.09.23 - 22.09.23
Results of the previous week
| VIX+10.56% | UNH +4.18% | XAGUSD+1.25% |
NG -3.98% | NQ -3.20% | HG -2.41% |
US indices were under pressure last week. Despite the US Federal Reserve keeping its interest rate unchanged, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that another rate hike by the end of the year is entirely possible. It also became evident that the Fed can't be expected to do a quick 180 regarding the rates.
The Fed's fairly hawkish comments following its monetary policy meeting supported the US dollar, which strengthened against both the euro and pound. At its last meeting, the Bank of England quite unexpectedly kept its rate at 5.25% despite forecasts that it would raise the rate to 5.5%. This signalled that the British regulator sees economic problems and isn't ready to increase the pressure on them. That decision was disappointing news for the pound.
Oil prices have bounced off their previous highs. Brent crude oil (BRN) has returned to $92.70 a barrel. Oil prices declined due to the US Fed's statements that supported the dollar and put pressure on risky assets. A cut in production by OPEC+ countries remains a factor that keeps the price of oil from falling further.
Key events of the current week
The US. CB Consumer Confidence Index | DATE 26.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US economy looks pretty stable. The labour market isn't seeing a significant decline, and in this context, consumers are feeling pretty positive in the current environment. However, energy prices have recently been rising, which will cause a new round of inflation. The Fed is well aware of this and has made it clear that another rate hike before the end of this year isn't out of the question. When taken together, these two factors are bad news for Americans' expectations about their prospects. That's why consumer confidence has slightly decreased. This trend is bad news for the US dollar. With the Consumer Confidence Index reflecting a decrease, the USD/JPY pair may retreat to 147.35.. | |||||
The US. Durable goods orders | DATE 27.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Durable goods orders are one of the key indicators of the US economy's health. In July, this indicator dropped sharply, which is bad news for the real sector. This movement partially indicates Americans' unwillingness to make large expenditures. Moreover, the country's inflation rate is rising again, as is the cost of borrowing for business and everyday Americans. According to forecasts from the largest analytical agencies, the indicator will drop in the reporting period, but not by as much as a month earlier. Nevertheless, this is a negative trend for the US economy and, consequently, the US dollar.If the report meets or falls below the forecast, the EUR/USD pair may begin to correct to around 1.0740. | |||||
The UK. GDP growth rate | DATE 29.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK's economy is growing at an incredibly moderate pace. It's only added 0.2% year-over-year. This is due to rising energy prices, a fairly high level of inflation and rising unemployment. At the same time, amidst a weak economy, the Bank of England was forced to raise the country's interest rate, bringing it to its highest level since 2008. But at the end of its last meeting, the regulator decided to pause, which put pressure on the pound.At the same time, if the finalised data is revised upward in accordance with the forecast, the GBP/USD pair may show short-term growth to around 1.2370. | |||||
