19.08.24 - 23.08.24
Results of the previous week
| COCOA +7.09 | PL +3.64% | VIX +2.59% |
MRNA -7.95% | NG -3.51% | USDCHF -1.88% |
Last week, US indices saw mixed performance, with short-term growth being replaced by a decline. Much of this is due to incoming information. On the one hand, according to the US Federal Reserve's Meeting Minutes for July, the regulator is very close to initiating a rate cut. That's good news for the stock market. On the other hand, investors were disappointed by revised non-farm payrolls data. It turns out that from April 2023 to March 2024, the economy created 174,000 jobs instead of 242,000.
The US dollar reacted negatively to the information. EUR/USD fell to its lowest value since July 2023. The dollar also declined against commodity currencies. GBP/USD jumped to a 13-month high at 1.3130. Gold (XAU/USD) also hit an all-time high on the back of the dollar's weakness.
Brent crude oil prices declined at the start of the week amid concerns over demand and oversupply. According to the latest data, US oil production rose to a record high of more than 13 million barrels in August. In addition, ongoing ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas are easing fears that an energy shortage will develop. However, a weaker dollar allowed black gold to partially recover by the end of the week.
Key events of the current week
The US. Durable goods orders | DATE 26.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
An important indicator reflecting the number of manufacturing new orders. This indicator essentially reflects future industrial activity. A month earlier, it saw a massive collapse. Global analysts expect the decline to continue but at a slower pace. US Federal Reserve representatives have already repeatedly signalled that they are considering lowering the key interest rate at an upcoming meeting. Deteriorating macroeconomic indicators will reinforce such expectations. That's bad news for the US dollar but positive for dollar-denominated assets, such as gold. Against this background, XAU/USD may resume its movement towards 2530.00. | |||||
The US. GDP growth rate | DATE 29.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Although the US economy's growth has been slowing for the past three quarters, it's a long way from a recession. However, signs of cooling are emerging, and that's a reason for the Fed to think about cutting rates sooner. The US regulator has already repeatedly stated its willingness to act on incoming macroeconomic statistics. US price pressure continues to fall. At the same time, the labour market isn't showing the most positive changes. The unemployment rate is on the rise, meaning the country's insufficiently fast GDP growth rate will strengthen expectations of a rate cut. And this is negative for the dollar. In such a scenario, we could see USD/JPY resume its decline to 143.90. | |||||
The eurozone. Inflation rate | DATE 30.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Eurozone price pressures have retreated from the highs but remain above the ECB's target level. At the same time, the state of the European economy leaves much to be desired. The economy's growth rate remains at 0.6%, and the unemployment rate has risen again. The European Central Bank has already cut the key interest rate once to support the economy, but inflation returned to 2.6% in response to that decision. As such, the regulator continues to monitor price pressures. If they drop, it will return expectations of another round of monetary policy easing. That's bad news for the euro, resulting in EUR/USD potentially rolling back to around 1.1030. | |||||
