05.08.24 - 09.08.24
Results of the previous week
| NG +13.72 | PA +7.18% | NIY +6.36% |
VIX -37.50% | CORN -4.09% | USDCLP -2.30% |
The beginning of last week was extremely worrying for US indices, which dropped hard after Asian indices did. Weak US labour market data added to the negativity. But markets got over their panic fairly quickly, and they managed to recover the losses they had suffered, especially as signs of cooling in the US economy have reinforced expectations that the Fed could cut interest rates as early as its September meeting.
After the US dollar weakened sharply due to weak US labour market data, it gradually recovered its losses during most of the week. In particular, USD/JPY fell to its lowest level since January 2024. That was also a result of the Bank of Japan's decision to hike its key interest rate. However, the pair returned to above 147.00 by the end of the week.
Brent oil, meanwhile, traded mixed. Earlier in the week, the pair fell to a seven-month low after stock markets plummetted amid concerns about the global economic outlook. However, they returned to growth later in the work week. The price for this type of oil was buoyed by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which threatens supply stability. Additional optimism came from positive inflation data in China, the world's largest oil importer.
Key events of the current week
The UK. Unemployment rate | DATE 13.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The situation in the labour market is one of the most important indicators of the state of the economy. The country's unemployment rate has been rising for the past six months. This is a worrying sign. Especially against the backdrop of an economy that is showing near-zero growth and teetering on the brink of recession. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%, the highest since November 2021. A weak labour market, low GDP growth, and inflation falling to the target level set by the Bank of England allow the regulator to continue cutting its key interest rate. This is bad news for the pound. In this scenario, GBP/USD could return to around 1.2670. | |||||
The US. Inflation rate | DATE 14.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
US inflationary pressure has been gradually easing over the past four months. However, the current inflation rate is still well above the US Federal Reserve's target rate. Nevertheless, the regulator sees certain concerning issues in the US economy, especially in the rise in the unemployment rate. In addition, the US manufacturing PMI has consolidated below the 50 mark, indicating a decline in this sector. Against the backdrop of a weak economy, keeping the inflation rate unchanged, as many global analysts expect, will boost hopes for a rate cut by the Fed as early as its September meeting. And this is negative for the dollar. In such a scenario, we could see USD/JPY resume its decline to 145.00. | |||||
The US. Retail sales | DATE 15.08 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Domestic consumption plays a pivotal role in the US economy. Global analysts expect this indicator's growth rate to slow. Given the fact that all components of retail trade, including goods and services, are taken into account when calculating this indicator, a decline in the indicator is a bad sign for the US economy. In addition to the deteriorating labour market and weakness in the industrial sector, this is another reason for the US Fed to cut interest rates earlier than expected. Expectations of a rate cut are unfavourable for the US dollar. In such a scenario, we could see the Fiber move to around 1.1000. | |||||
