19.06.29 - 23.06.02
Results of the previous week
| WHEAT +8.07% | NG +5.13% | USDJPY +1.01% |
HSI -5.57% | XAGUSD -5.26% | BRN -2.27% |
Last week, the US Federal Reserve Chairman confirmed intentions to keep hiking the nation's interest rate despite skipping monetary policy tightening measures in June. Such expectations are harmful to the stock market. Over the past week, US indices saw an overall decline, breaking previous weeks of growth.
The dollar faced moderate pressure against major currencies. Amid Powell's remarks, it dropped against the euro, pound and Australian dollar. But it also strengthened against the yen based on the difference in sentiment on monetary policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan. The dollar also managed to strengthen against the Turkish lira.
Brent (BRN) oil prices reached $73 a barrel, coming under pressure by actions of world central banks aimed at curbing inflation by raising interest rates. Naturally, such actions hurt the global economy and raise concerns about demand for oil.
Key events of the current week
The US. Durable goods orders | DATE 27.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
In the past several months, the durable goods order indicator has shown mixed dynamics, swinging back and forth from growth to decline. However, this indicator is crucial because it allows us to evaluate prospects for various sectors, including the industrial sector. The more orders are placed, the more active industry will work. The indicator is expected to fall in the upcoming reporting period. This is a worrying sign that suggests an economic slowdown. When taken together with statements from the US Federal Reserve that the interest rate will be raised this year, this has a negative impact on the real sector. Stock indices like the Nasdaq remain under pressure and could move to 14,963.70. | |||||
The US. New jobless claims | DATE 29.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Over the past five weeks, the number of new jobless claims has increased, and this trend is expected to continue. Signs of deterioration in the labour market could negatively impact the nation's service-oriented economy. After all, domestic consumption is the most critical contributor to the country's GDP. The negative situation in the labour market won't go unnoticed by the US Federal Reserve, which might slightly delay a rate hike despite plans for one or two more monetary policy tightening measures this year. The weak macrostatistics is hurting the dollar. As a result, it might decline against its major opponents.For example, GBP/USD may aim to return to 1.2810. | |||||
Germany. Retail sales | DATE 30.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Domestic consumption plays a massive role in the economy of any country. Many European countries, including Germany, have faced high inflation. According to the latest data, inflation is at 6.1%. Naturally, rising prices couldn't help but lead to a decline in consumer activity. Retail sales have been in a downtrend for the past year, with forecasts predicting that it will drop to 3.4% in the reporting period. This is another factor confirming the weakness of the eurozone's largest economy and is bad news for the euro. The EUR/USD pair may continue to move towards 1.0680 amid weak statistics. | |||||
![Will Powell confirm the US Fed's sentiment? [Weekly Digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/news/shutterstock_1590824863_7.jpg?itok=6yWW7Zf1)
