26.08.24 - 30.08.24
Results of the previous week
| SUGAR +7.23 | PA +2.25% | FDAX +1.67% |
TSLA -5.47% | NG -3.43% | VIX -1.89% |
US indices showed mixed dynamics last week. As a result, they finish the workweek without significant changes. The indices are getting support from expectations that the US Federal Reserve will ease its monetary policy. At the same time, macroeconomic statistics (data on durable goods orders, revised GDP report) turned out to be quite strong, which gave investors reasons not to expect a more decisive rate cut by the Fed. It also acted as a factor restraining indices' positive dynamics. Moreover, a correction was imminent in technical terms because indices were near their recent highs.
The US dollar reacted optimistically to the macroeconomic reports that came in. This is not surprising as durable goods orders were three times higher than expected. Consumer Board Consumer Confidence Survey data were also better than forecast. The economy's growth rate was also revised upwards. All of these factors supported the dollar because such statistics allow the US Fed to take a pause after making a widely expected rate cut in September.
Brent crude oil prices attempted to consolidate above the $80 per barrel level at the beginning of the week, but they failed to do so. The news environment remains mixed. On the one hand, the market is anxious about the outlook for energy demand from China and amid a possible slowdown in the global economy, which adds pressure. On the other hand, lower oil production and shrinking reserves in the US support oil prices.
Key events of the current week
The US. ISM Manufacturing PMI | DATE 03.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Since November 2022, the figure has remained below the 50 mark, indicating a downturn in this economic sector. In fact, it confirms that the economy is not in the best shape, a fact that is pushing the US Fed to cut interest rates. However, the Fed's September monetary easing has already been baked into prices. At the same time, global analysts expect the indicators to increase slightly. This is a positive factor that indicates that the sector is gradually coming out of stagnation. The stabilisation of macroeconomic indicators is good news for the US dollar. In this environment, USD/JPY may continue to move towards 146.50. | |||||
Bank of Canada's key rate decision | DATE 04.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Canada's economic growth has been slowing recently, but so is inflation. According to the latest data, the consumer price index fell to 2.5% year over year. Such statistics allow the Bank of Canada to go for another rate cut for the third time this year. This is what most global analysts expect from the Canadian regulator. Monetary policy easing has a negative impact on the Canadian dollar's exchange rate. In this context, USD/CAD may return to the resistance level of 1.3600. | |||||
The US. Non-Farm Payrolls | DATE 06.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The situation in the labour market is worse than statistics indicate. According to the revised figures, from April 2023 to March 2024, the economy created 174,000 jobs per month rather than 242,000 each month. As such, the data on the number of new non-farm jobs for August will attract particular attention. Global analysts expect the trend of slowing job growth to continue. That will also reinforce expectations of further monetary policy easing by the Fed before the end of 2024. And this is negative for the dollar. However, this will be good news for assets denominated in it, such as gold. In this scenario, XAU/USD may set a new all-time high at 2550.00. | |||||
