22.06.26 - 26.06.26
Results of the previous week
| COCOA +11.46% | VIX +3.37% | EURAUD +1.32% |
XAGUSD -10.27% | BRN -5.91% | NQ -3.13% |
Last week, the US indices S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell. On one hand, this was due to a technical correction after a prolonged rally that saw new record highs repeatedly hit. On the other hand, the slide in technology stocks and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike drove the drop.
The forex market saw mixed movement. The dollar strengthened against commodity-linked currencies, all while consolidating within established ranges against the euro and the pound. The US currency is receiving moderate support from expectations that the Fed will hike its key interest rate. An upward revision of final GDP growth figures was also good news.
Brent crude prices continued to fall and briefly dropped to $72.75 per barrel. Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is gradually recovering, which is contributing to increased global energy supplies. The US easing sanctions against Iran could help balance energy supply and demand.
Key events of the current week
| Germany. Unemployment rate EUR/USD | DATE 30.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The labour market situation in Germany remains complicated. High energy prices are leading to reduced production volumes and the suspension of operations at some facilities. Workforce reductions are one result of these trends, and global analysts expect Germany's unemployment rate to continue rising. This is a negative factor for the European economy and the euro since economic weakness could prompt the ECB to refrain from hiking its key interest rate further. In this context, EUR/USD may decline to 1.1300. | |||||
| US. Manufacturing PMI USD/JPY | DATE 01.07 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
While the manufacturing sector plays a less significant role in the US economy than the services sector, it still accounts for approximately 25% of GDP. Despite geopolitical tensions and high energy prices, the manufacturing sector remains fairly resilient. The indicator remains above the 50 mark, which signals growth within the sector. The stability of key macroeconomic indicators is good news for the dollar because it allows the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy. In this scenario, USD/JPY could rise to 163.00. | |||||
| US. Non-farm payrolls XAU/USD | DATE 02.07 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US labour market appears to be showing signs of cooling. Global analysts expect a slowdown in employment growth and a potential rise in the unemployment rate. The labour market's health continues to be a key factor for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. However, with rising inflation driven by higher energy prices, the regulator is unlikely to cut interest rates. Overall, deteriorating macroeconomic indicators are putting pressure on the dollar. At the same time, the US dollar's weakening is supporting assets denominated in it, particularly gold. In this context, XAU/USD could rise toward 4,100.00. | |||||
